Our Affinity for Cycles and seeing Degree of Trend

All of our individual lives are impacted by recurring cycles. Most people rely upon recurring cycles to add structure to their lives. Society, as a unit, certainly does. Awareness of different cycles and rhythms are our first experiences in life. Cycles offer repetition and therefore some amount of certainty in a world that is uncertain as we come into it and grow in it. Our innate tendency when reacting to uncertainty can be seen to manifest as a polarized behavioral pattern, and is at the root of all our reactions and creations as individuals and as a society.

.

What I call The Root Trend, is the incremental view of how groups of people collectively respond to uncertainty and in doing so have created all that we have, both individually and collectively. The Root Trend uses a narrow perspective on the broad social process first called 'social mood' by Robert R Prechter in his books and writings as well as the work of Ralph N Elliott years earlier.  Both this developing narrower view offered here as the root trend, and the larger perspective of social mood matters to business because in them are the key to all social trending we see. It is linked to all consumer behavior, all creative endeavors(in the aggregate), investor behavior (broadly), and the markets we touch in the processes of our productive enterprises,(and so much more). As a result of these observations, social mood can tell us a lot about our specific industries, the past, the present and even suggest the shades of gray in the future. In uncertain times this can be seen as a strong tool that transcends doubt. It will not solve problems on its own but, it will add perspective where it is needed. The main value of my added perspective is in how you use this insight...how you apply social mood to businesses and industry in a meaningful process that will foster better (longer term) strategic insight.

.

A longer post than usual follows with two key diagrams for understanding a likely link between individual and collective social behavior. These diagrams also offer context for this analysis as well as suggesting a process to explain how social mood manifests in self similar patterns of behavior and in doing so creates discernible patterns within ever larger patterns, each with a specific significance to all social trending we see. This is practical insight and it offers those willing to see, a competitive advantage. If you absorb the broad ideas that follow, it will help build a better appreciation for many posts to this blog that will come later. I hope you'll keep reading. Dave

This is really pure social science and could be discussed from a much more thorough and detailed perspective. For now, the intention here is simply to convey a big picture perspective on why this matters to marketers, strategists, and anyone who ‘needs to know’. Much of what follows is rich in ideas and deserves more latitude for scientific and business strategy discussion. I encourage readers to consider the many other applications beyond the immediate stated intention. It has taken a long time to distill these thoughts but my experience in sales echoes the benefit of being brief. Despite what you may think, this is very brief.

So, this discussion is intended to address the following: Why 'degree of trend' matters so much in discussing social mood and the trends thrown off as a result of the creative process, and how this root trend can be seen to unfold in the many different parts of our lives(very generally). And while I address this to marketers, it is obvious that it matters to a potentially very wide group of proactive people and professionals.

The most basic cycles and rhythms we first become aware of are very simple. A heartbeat, hunger vs. satiation, light and darkness, non-specific noises, physical sensations outside of us and inside of us are all apart of individual awareness. And while this is not an exhaustive list, stop and think about how these early experiences may relate to how we all grow to use/depend on cycles (outwardly and inwardly)in our everyday adult lives. Think about how these cycles can be described. We experience individual cycles, natural cycles, and social cycles. Some social cycles may have become social cycles but were originally natural cycles. Some social cycles have become thought of as natural cycles when they are really social constructs and are artificial cycles. Still, we are attracted to the idea of rhythms we can gauge from the outset.

Natural Cycles

They are often easily recognized despite an era of technology Natural cycles are easy to recognize as we often respond to them emotionally and even physically. Day versus night (and specifically length of the day), the lunar month, planting seasons & harvests, specific weather related seasons depending upon your locale, the generalized seasons are all still recognizable. Obviously there are many more natural cycles and I leave it to you for now to conjure them and consider how they may impact your own circumstances.

Personal Cycles

In keeping with a quick flow; here is a short list of personal cycles but because the discussion of social cycles (in my view) begins with the personal cycle, there will be more expansion on this topic later. Basic physical cycles: (breath, heartbeat, hunger, sleep, excretion, youth, old age, etc) Awareness of natural cycles in the world impacts our own physical and psychological cycles. Emotional states are a key part of the human experience and can be seen in my diagrams here to break down to base levels of background states that combine with our unique thinking to form the personal creative process. Instead of thinking of this chart or these examples as definitive, use them as a tool to aid the momentum in understanding the larger connection that follows. You'll need to click on the thumbnail image to see the charts.

The Personal Creative cycle can be seen to attach/relate to our emotional state. I will leave it to the psychological/developmental crowd to build this more completely (and specifically suggest the need for a three- dimensional structure (pictured only in two dimensions here)). This personal cycle can be seen, if we stop to consider our own experience, to occur in bits and parts over and over in our cognitive processes as we negotiate daily life and specifically issues that require creative problem solving. The creative process (to me) is best spelled out during a prolonged creative endeavor where ideas or solutions are built from basic inputs over time(this is how I first noticed it). In this sense we can attempt to see the process this chart suggests is circular when it is really a three-dimensional construct where parts are skipped at times in order to facilitate incremental solutions(ie. what happens to a good idea?). Without discussing them now, there are also obvious ways to use what is here to facilitate problem solving if you work with it. This is worth returning to later. For the purposes of this discussion let’s recognize this as an oft repeated personal process, another cycle we experience even if we do not examine it.

Perhaps the best way I know how to offer context for how social group processes occur (social trending of all kinds)is to begin with individual proclivities. If the individual can be seen to display cognitive tendencies that obviously relate to these larger unconscious social processes, then there is a logical basis to suspend one’s existing judgment about social processes in the world around us, in order to see them more clearly. What you will find as you continue here is that the root trend, (as I describe the narrow view), and particularly the broader idea of social mood, as I first saw described by Prechter and Elliott, suggests that events in the world around us can be explained in a very different manner than is constantly reinforced by society.

< For clarity, the academic world has not embraced this work as yet and the two charts I offer here are purely working tools I use for myself based on observations I have made, and also in ascribing others observations. Personally, I believe waiting for the academic universe to catch up would be a large mistake. Both because of the general insight offered by this perspective and the relative potential timing, seeing this process for what it is up close as we collectively negotiate a series of sharp social-creative corners has the potential to offer an incredible advantage as well as incremental knowledge of ourselves as a society. This idea was originally observed aggregating specific transactions using the US Dollar and its value as a tool has centered on that very activity. I submit that this narrow process I call the Root Trend is immensely valuable completely outside of its original context of financial market behavior. It is a fundamental behavioral construct that helps us see us better and a marketer could ask for little more than that as a competitive advantage. >   

The second diagram of this post outlines the Social Cycle of Creation and can be seen to mirror the personal cycle in important ways. The social cycle of creation is how groups collectively go through the same process incrementally (over differing spans of time).

<Neither cycle relates neatly to the dynamic of time. Both may relate somehow to time using very long term historic data, but since this is so speculative until after the fact, I am yet to be persuaded it is a valuable endeavor except in the longest term form of this analysis. Both cycles in each diagram are event driven...these are experiential processes. We live our lives by clocks and calendars but this basic personal cycle and group rhythm is mostly unrelated to time in the sense we use it everyday.>

This Social Cycle of Creation is based generally upon Prechter's observations of social mood.  I offer it here in the context of the personal cycle of creativity to demonstrate how social mood is likely a natural outgrowth of our individual proclivity, but also demonstrates a kind of patterning that can be seen elsewhere in the natural world...hence the Elliot wave principle first seen by Ralph Elliot 70+ years ago. Even though the Elliott wave principle was designed as a tool for financial market analysts, the basic principle (observation)is one of social science as Prechter pointed out clearly in his socionomic hypothesis and as such is both directly and indirectly related to the broad area known as consumer behavior. So really, The Root Trend is a narrow perspective on some big ideas and is really a translation from one industry, to the next, to the next. So before you go investing in Spanish or Cantonese as a second language, investing in understanding the language of social trends right now may be a smarter investment with a faster payoff.

Let's appreciate how the social cycle pictured below (click on thumbnail) is more complex than the personal cycle. It involves much person to person transmission of social energy, and that takes time.  To see how these important steps of social creation have an immediate application, it helps to remove one self from the immediate and endeavor to see group processes (trending) over longer periods of time in order to see the larger influences on current trending. This chunking up of events and time is an important basic skill prior to seeing 'degree of trend', and it requires marketers or anyone who sees social trending, in the perspective of social mood, to see how the root trend manifests in the form of these different sized circles over and over in disparate groups or units of association. The more social units of association (social sub groups) engaged by the trending process the longer the cycle and also a greater chance of being attached to a larger degree of trend. Each social trending process can be seen to relate to an aggregate degree of trend of the developing social mood (even if how mood actually aggregates is slightly different- seeing it this way will prove highly beneficial compared to conventional wisdom).

Why are some social trends very brief? like a style of clothing or a car style that comes in and goes out after a season or two of participation? Why are other social trends, those we like to call secular trends of the size and construct they are?....like the significance of the Internet to all existing media? Why then are there even longer trends we can identify that span many generations of people and even multiple centuries...like the development of societies or the rise of some core ability of people across multiple societies? Are these disparate occurrences to be considered only on their individual circumstance? If we accept social mood as valid we see them as all connected to what we can label a specific degree of trend of the developing social mood.

The Social Cycle of Creation, like the Personal Cycle of Creativity can also be seen as a three-dimensional process that is not static or forced onto a continuous circular pathway (for any one smaller trending process) and in this way it allows for the development of the aggregate social mood and its varying degrees of trend. This is why we refer to the developing social mood at a specific degree of trend to be precise as to which larger influences are being expressed. For instance, one degree of trend will suggest a certain kind of basic influence and another degree of trend may suggest something very different even if it is the same trend in the short term. Seeing it this way offers immediate comparative insight that benefits from an historic perspective. Depending upon how we view our accumulated history of achievement, and especially how we measure it, we can see periods of progress and egress that is built upon these self similar patterns....so the whole is made of parts of similar form(see the social cycle chart). So one trend unfolding over ten years is part of an expression of a larger trend that may unfold over many decades and even a larger trend beyond that...after all, humankind is leaving the breadcrumb trail whether or not we have been keeping notes. Each of these successively larger trends suggest a specific kind of social creative force or least common denominator that may or may not demand attention or action in the present. This decision, suggested here, would be another creative cycle. So as just stated, one trend can be seen to fit into both the smaller trending process and the even larger longer-term social trends as well.

How we ultimately view the trend from our present perspective is the value of understanding degree of trend. Every trend is most likely "best" related to a specific degree of trend for analysis and identifying that relationship will be worth the effort, especially if the trend matters to our business or a major personal decision. Understanding the relationship to degree of trend will offer insight that goes well beyond the hot topics in the trade rags or newsprints every month. A working example is three paragraphs below but now lets summarize:

Trends or developments of patterned behavior among individual groups of people can be seen to be attached to some degree of trend of the aggregate developing social mood. As people, business strategists, or marketers, once we agree to see trending through the lens of social mood, we only need dig deeper to identify which degree of trend is being most clearly reflected and we have a basis to see social trending in a very different light. So while social mood is a very broad concept as originally envisioned, how social mood proceeds through the various "units of association" we call industries or groups of people large and small, can be seen to build a micro process worth noticing. I call this micro view The Root Trend even if it is all a subset of socionomics as Prechter envisioned it.

Now, compare these two diagrams I provide here: Note the symmetry and parallel structure. If you have been in an industry for a decade or more you can recall enough developments that should allow you to apply these memories to the process in a way that offers better context. But---be careful. At first glance it is obvious that in order for this social cycle to complete it will take time to work its way through all the relevant 'units of association' that are related to the trending process. This is where the work of Malcolm Gladwell in his book, The Tipping Point, is becomes very relevant in both a narrow sense and a global sense in the social processes pictured. The segments of the Social Cycle of Creation must slowly work its way through the different parts of the social structure that matter to any trending process. The Tipping Point laid out some pretty straight forward rules and constituent parts that must be present for the exciting parts to occur...but the less exciting portions (fading away of trends or their transformation) also seem to happen in the same constructs. (You'll notice that his book also does not align with any known factors of time or calendar days either.) Identifying these disparate social groups that must align may be more than challenging. It helps to have a global view of markets after years of participation. Seeing the process of the root trend is the right way to start and seeing the process of the Tipping Point inherent throughout this process is also important. If you can time shift your perspective and see social mood manifesting at its own pace you can begin to measure it or simply gauge the size of the trends relative to other comparables that will eventually allow for a direct link to the proper degree of trend of the aggregate developing social mood.

In this blog my favorite trending subject is media (the business of selling creative content of any kind). I see few competitors who have taken meaningful steps to embrace what are clearly secular social forces (and even larger forces)changing the demand structure in the creative content industry. And while it is easy for me to observe how everyone seems so caught up in short term cross currents (and that really is understandable), this is precisely the benefit of seeing degree of trend. Media is beginning to encounter a period of creative destruction(see the Social chart again) that splits the industry on a axis still not anticipated right now, and seeing this for what it is before industry assets are forced to redistribute by the new creative social energy, will allow some competitors to thrive and others to reallocate themselves elsewhere. There is no old media and new media. There is and there will be successful media companies that read social mood and adapt to social trending forces at two very long term degrees of trend. Media companies will look very different soon than they do now, probably in less than a decade. Because the trending processes seen in this broad industry are so connected to the social fabric of the entire society, the changes will be very dramatic and not always attributed to the very creative social energy that should be seen clearly. Short term reasons and reasoning will not work in the social transition already underway. The best descriptive analogy to use is an historic reference. Media is undergoing an 'industrial revolution' that will forever change media but also likely alter many aspects of how we get and use information in our personal lives. This is a very big discussion and more than worthy of its own category in this blog.   

Without the benefit of social mood we still tend to intuitively acknowledge trends that are shorter term and longer term when it is obvious. Some trends defy labeling when they appear as sudden shifts whose only relevance is to some major technological development. The question is how do you apply the knowledge of the root trend to these unknowns? The answer, for now, would appear to be; find the least common (behavioral) denominator and begin at the largest degree of trend visible to work your way to the shorter and smaller degrees to build a strategy of relevance to your markets using the historic patterning of all your markets. So clearly this is not a trick or an easy prescription. It is prescribed work that offers a great benefit. This is where the importance of quantitative data re-enters the process. At the tail end of this qualitative discussion is the reality that in the information age, data is the key to unlocking the secrets of social trending. For now, building an appreciation for the fact that social mood is comprised of multiple degrees of trend being expressed at any one time across a complex social environment is paramount. Understanding these two processes (the individual and social processes) and acknowledging their relationship and relevance in our own environments can bring about a better appreciation for social trends that impact our lives. Further, understanding degree of trend is a huge potential step to seeing over the horizon in your business.

post script:

Since this was not a post to explain The Root Trend but it did raise a lot of points about the process of what I call the root trend.......the next major post will address more directly the function of the root trend using degree of trend without stopping to explain it generally. For now, it is essential appreciate for how social mood is expressed by similar repeating patterns of impulsive social behavior and that each of these patterns expressed outwardly makes up a part of multiple degrees of trend at the same time. I offered these two cycles as aides in understanding social trending. They are recent developments I use personally to help me see better and as such I offer them in that spirit. Time will tell me if they have as much utility as I believe they do.  An historic perspective on trending in specific areas (markets) of social creation will help us to identify which degree of trend is most directly being expressed by trending processes being watched.  If you are very new to this subject, this might not be clear yet. This is not meant to be confusing but it is a central point. Social trends of all kinds are expressions of some part of the developing social mood. Knowing which part will tell us about the creative forces and thus benefit the decisions we make moving forward...especially in times of change.