There's a growing number of writers discussing recession/downturn related shifts in consumer behavior which are emerging now. The NYT (link below), from this week, is a great example. The developing of many seemingly related consumer trends in this regard can be more than interesting if you do some historical research preceding and during past recessions. You may come up with a series of expectations of broad changes in consumer behavior like in this NYT article. It is possible, however, to see deeper into changing consumer behavior through the lens of the developing social mood. The nuances this perspective offers helps you see how when we organize into groups large and small, social mood offers a generalized prescription of group behavioral tendencies (behavioral trend threads) that marketers can use to look closer at their target markets. Social mood is a broad but accurate perspective of basic group perception and causality. It is about "group processes" and turning a probabilistic perspective into a qualitative understanding that goes from very broad to potentially very narrow uses. "Group processes" is what I call social trending and while this is a descriptive term that introduces willing marketers to a great deal beyond "tipping point" moments. If this sounds complicated, it's not. Really. It is a general prescription for social trend following which requires some background. After that, there is much to be discovered in the manners of measurement we apply to marketing challenges. It's not a collection of sound bites but then what is worthwhile these days and comes in sound bites? here's the link:
Hard Times, but Your Lips Look Great (today's NYT)
In the "keep reading" section I detail some of the broadest aspects of this primary theme of the developing negative social mood (that tracks the broadening consumer behavior discussed in this article) and how we can expect to see the basic group impulse splinter into related market themes that reflect this key trend thread.
Very broadly:
I see trends as a "group process"...and not necessarily a conscious process but how we tend to behave when participating in a group. Bird and animals flock in obvious physical proximity. Humans seem to herd around ideas (as well as into cities) and what we do when we organize into groups and markets. Instead of getting hung up here on my big picture views, let's just keep it here for now: How we do things in groups is often much more subjected to emotional input (think: branding) even if we do not see past the (averaged) group rationale. People are emotional beings who can also think rationally too. The key to tis perspective is how we mix the two up and how emotions gets involved in our participation in groups. (I am breezing over what a textbook should cover deeply right now.) And since so many of the groups we belong to are less than formal and require only generalized association but still have important means of influencing their members, the influence we both give and receive with these groups tends to be aggregated slowly over time and add to our collective perception experiences in the form of trending that involves different kinds of generalized behavior (that reflects social mood). Since so much of this eventually impacts the realm of marketing, it is only natural this subject be brought before marketers and begin to be observed directly and expanded upon with specific methods for seeing trending that matters to us in our many enterprises and verticals.
Since most people lack the perspective social mood offers us, the beauty and natural dynamic of people in groups is missed as seemingly random. It is a entire frontier of understanding and marketers should be the first to 'race westward'.
As a developing social mood at a larger degree of trend commences several basic social dimensions shift:
The following slide is not perfect but it will help you see the primary viewable impulses of a developing negative social mood:
Back to the narrow trend
The previous social trend emphasizing money was powerful, and is over now. As we move further into this new social development, the satisfaction of that previous kind of energy (the social energy of money) no longer seems as viable to most and the social energy in our groups is being redistributed to other forms of creative endeavor(expression). In the absence of money and the hope for more of it in an uncertain future, sexual gratification is a great way to replace that missing good feeling. Is this a leap? The first time I read Prechter's expanded views of R N Elliott's work on this primary social trending impulse four years ago I remember laughing to myself. Then I watched it develop over time. Social trends that are this (basic)primary and reflecting a large degree of trend of the developing social mood cannot be pulled from any one story in the news because social mood is more of a larger idea of aggregated behavior attached to who we are in a collective sense (groups and group processes are able to be viewed beyond our individualistic actions/perceptions) This is not to say free will is compromised....no indeed! This is exactly why marketers should be chasing this understanding. As marketers we are either part of the trend, or outside of it looking in. The role of statistical mathematics is essential is seeing further into these trends.
So, back to the trend thread at hand. If money is tight because our collective economic velocity is slowing from the dramatically artificial pace of recent years, then where is all that social creative energy going. People, individuals, always want to feel good about themselves and in a world where the future is now always more uncertain(in terms of our collective pessimism), we like to (need to) feel good physically. Part of this may mean feeling physically attractive. I believe that a powerful trade off will be seen incrementally in the consumer marketplace in the next decade that essentially trades off (much of) the past urges to get rich quick, for feel good now. An increased sense of sexuality will play an important role in this consumer trend. Obviously, part of this group process will be to emphasize youth as we've seen so much in the recent past, but as the influential Boomer's age (gracefully?) we are more likely to see "feel good" win out over "look good". The implications of this dynamic alone will spawn many market based choices. Some will survive and many will not. Seeing the basic trend thread of increased sexuality and understanding why it will continue to increase is essential, and why this matters to marketers.
This will be updated and finished over the next week.....Dave
First update: Popular culture is reflecting the larger changes in our sexual expression as a society. During rising social mood, love is supported and marriage and growth of families is more universally supported. As social mood falls these expressions are increasingly challenged by several key trend threads that support less optimism toward an increasingly uncertain future, shrinking units of association for us generally (individually and as a society), less and less belief that love can conquer all, and a new growing belief (trend) toward sexual gratification. Put a slightly different way: Demand in this area is increasing, and society always responds with the needed supply of outlets and ideas. From the NYT this weekend: Take My Wife. Please. I'll Take Yours.
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