Every big business out there that is betting on social media platforms like Facebook, Linked-In, My Space, Hip Cricket (or one of the many others), is leaning on hopes that aggregated user numbers can eventually be monetized along the same lines as old media outlets sold their programming/sponsorships for decades. Most are trying to appear more sophisticated in presenting the value but, aggregation is what is valued by large businesses today. I’ve written a lot about evolving media trends in the US (and it has its own category on right side of this blog). Trends in social media may seem different than other media issues I’ve pointed to but the main trend toward the consumer controlling Choice is reflected clearly by social media developments. Social media also allows us to see a little further in where it is going using the developing social mood. This post will briefly cover this perspective:
What it tells us is that unless some kind of significant proprietary technology is about to emerge, and be deemed socially indispensable <so as to aggregate us>, the path forward is not as is currently imagined by many large competitors betting big sums. In fact, it is quite the opposite.
The magic to be seen in social media’s development is in the
very social forces propelling it. This magic is none other than innovation
occurring in technology and social environments at the same time as a
generational changeover is beginning. In the past, capturing this has meant a
windfall for one or many enterprises.
Record labels, government sanctioned
broadcasters, and Microsoft all harnessed technology to damn up market forces to
contain them for as long as possible. Longer term uses of social mood,
unfolding in what I call the root trend, show us how this always works out.
There is no evil or good in this perspective ever. It is neutral in how it
views these kinds of circumstances. For instance, many can say Microsoft earned
its near monopoly. Many disagree emotionally. The key point through the perspective of
social mood is that all business enterprises are tools for markets of people and ,
when they serve people well, they thrive. When they do not, they decline and
distribute their social capital to more purposeful endeavors. In the medium term
and short term where we all live, the real payoff with this current insight of
social media will be by marketers that create realistic and honest two way
dialog with their various customer bases. This dialog is a main trending
current running through social media.
Social media is a tool of people, not
businesses. This central truth is part of the era of Consumer Choice the
Internet has brought. It is also called mass specialization by Chris Anderson. The harder businesses fight this central truth, the more
they will find frustration. The more Choice available to consumers expands, the
less they will settle for anything less than their own terms. Many older,
profitable business models that use technology of any kind have relied upon
corralling demand and serving it limited choices; media being chief among them.
It was a simplistic formula based upon regulation of markets either by decree, social contract, or both.
Social media platforms will evolve eventually to
help revolutionize the way we solve problems, not profitability. Social media has delivered us more content than we know what to do with but in time we will catch up with it by specializing and reaching social agreement on how much information is needed about users in exchange for content. It will help
us see very clearly, that on a social level, the most important element of
success is people working together in small teams using shared ideas and content. And while this perspective is hard to see
right now from something that appears to Boomers as the next “big thing”, it is
obvious through the way social media is being used by Millennials and also by
the long term developing of social mood. Choice is an incremental step in the process. Using Choice to specialize and organize ourselves is the intermediate trend. A large social correction will drive this process.
Think about it. As a
technology that created an artificial digital environment that allows us to
develop a brand new social dynamic, at the same time as social mood has begun
correcting and this implies that we will all soon value smaller units of
association in our lives as the larger social correction shapes our shared
values. It may seem like these forces conflict but like two rivers merging, the
substantial energy of both technology and social forces will mean inclusion into
groups will require more than just “signing up”. So far in the social media
revolution we have been encouraged that anyone can join. This was the "play" stage as we collectively worked out how and why this makes sense. This is the dynamic
that will soon change, not because social media evolves but, because social mood
is changing and social media is a tool that will reflect social mood. So smaller groups associating in the digital social environment is a gimme putt. What's next? That's up to marketers creating dialog. Why marketers? Because Marketers are the trend and use the trend at the same time. Innovation that reflects these larger social forces will be adopted. Innovation that is selfishly focused will be rejected. The social acrimony surrounding a social correction assures that much.
This
is how the root trend allows us to plan as marketers. As social media has
developed so far we know that authenticity is becoming essential. This is
important to marketers finding ways to incorporate social environments for two
way communication. As the primary social trend develops, fewer will be willing
to belong to groups without borders. Definition will be demanded. Like the sage Groucho
Marx said, ‘I wouldn't belong to any group that would have me as a
member!’ You get the point. (I hope so anyway)
Ultimately the benefit of the
social media environment will be to develop ways to meet like minded people that
can organize to solve problems and not have geography be a factor. This implies
that competition for inclusion will shoot very high compared to anything we
imagine now. This is a long trend but will be a persistent one as it build
momentum and watching social mood and the root trend are a worthy addition to a
strategic arsenal at this juncture.
This post was inspired by a
conversation that has developed over time at Forrester’s Agency Blog by Mary Beth Kemp.
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