In part 3 of this discussion, I make 4 trend points at the end for marketers to think about and will add to these more later. I also cover the implications of how the macro trend in consumer Choice is fueling the age of specialization and will augment and be augmented by all evolving manner of social media. I cover a very macro perspective at first in this post, like I did in the last, using what is offered by the root trend. Since these views are unknown to most people, I offer examples detailing both the macro and micro views available to show why using the lens of social mood as a tool to see the markets we serve is highly valuable for any business enterprise. The root trend is both a tool and a method to get focused on what truly matters to each enterprise, right now. Having spent many years in media, the current landscape is fascinating to me. The monikers old and new media will quickly lose relevance as the larger trending themes advance but the quarterly demands of public companies are what appear (in the very short term) to be leading us to major change quickly. The challenges faced at this point by old media enterprises will prove to be very instructive as the unstoppable force of Choice and the Age of Specialization builds momentum. The link between Choice and Specialization (as major themes) is critical in both medium and long term strategy building.
Questions and feedback are appreciated as this is a big discussion being fit into a blog format. Dave
What is social media telling us and where are we taking it?
Part
Three….The Era of Choice Is About Specialization
The Era of Consumer Choice
is about freedom from boundaries, freedom to specialize and organize around what we each really want….not available choice. This may seem obvious
to some but, incremental movement in markets toward genuine choice and not choices provided
for us by marketers are what are shaping demand now and in the future. First, technology
freed up music media in this manner. Broadcast media was next in line and this process is much larger
(in a social sense) so it will take longer to de-construct the enterprise format that
served the old paradigm and to construct new ways of serving Choice. If we try,
we can see (potential) parallels to this theme in every major industry serving mass markets.
For instance: If the elements of cars were universally manufactured, we could buy engines
from the lowest cost provider and add to bodies of our choice and the
interchangeability would produce cars cheaper by way of more competition.
Imagine if an electric engine or a hydrogen engine was later fitted to these
same choices, and the added competition would ultimately change the idea of
transportation. Sounds interesting but is really ridiculous, right? Not really.
Imagine for a moment if scalable interoperability were delivered by the auto industry. What would happen when economics and our romantic notion of cars collide head on?
Social mood would play a much larger role in this than one imagines (if it ever happens) . Imagine how
much social capital (people and raw creative energy) there would be to redistribute and apply elsewhere if transportation became truly practical? This exercise
requires a different kind of vision. Skip the unemployment issues and look at the functionality. You might begin by thinking about how the
Sustainability majors now available at big universities are taking young adults
to new conclusions without struggling over how its been done for a long time.
The era of technology we are passing through has made Choice
possible while freeing up societal resources previously needed by some industry. Choice is also guided by social mood. If technology made this so easy in music media, and now broadcast media’s
monetizing of content is feeling the same early trend effects, and next we’ll see more
major industry become aligned with ‘Choice’ as part of what Chris Anderson calls
mass specialization. Social media is an outlet for the social dynamic leading
to this important theme of specialization. This underlying dynamic is being
guided by social mood as it manifests as part of what I call the root trend.
The
turmoil that will accompany this large scale changing social dynamic will be
highly disruptive (when viewed through charts chunking up decades of activity)
because business models are going to have to fall and the social energy
reorganized to serve Choice. It feels a little extreme to write this until I remind myself of the bigger picture of all the social dynamics that a developing social correction (of this size)
will entail...and they all happen simultaneously. (A post coming soon will define generally the process of a social correction) It is easy to surrender to
the concept of chaos if you try to focus on small trends moving very quickly
without the flexible perspective of social mood. The Fourth Turning describes
it one way (by chunking up to the saeculum and generations and the historic perspective that seeing the developing social mood adds color and texture. Generational turnover is an essential dynamic now just
as it was when second and third generation colonists decided enough was enough
with the overbearing British will extending this far. And again, this was shown
80-90 years later when the dynamic of slavery had to be confronted by a growing
free nation. Yes, there were complicated issues all over the social spectrum (in
both periods) in these days and it was easy to say the war between the states
was not all about slavery.
The key macro point in this post, and to sum up these
three parts in one large theme, is that the developing social mood at certain
times corrects social progress by revisiting the basic themes in our
collective association (our social contract). It requires on a mass scale a
reaffirmation of these very ties that bind us as one giant group (society). The
dynamics of freedom itself was “worked out” in the period around the revolution
and again during the war between the states. And right now we are beginning to
see developing discussions flare around core social issues that have been present for
years but looked past as we built better e-commerce, larger houses, and
collectively felt some measure of the American dream as social optimism
expanded. Social corrections do not imply painful times, they suggest greater contrast in a societal unit that must be acknowledged and organized. That means recognizing that many of us see very differently (as we did in these other
important periods). Then what? Well, that is where part two of this post made
its point. The basic point of generational differentiation is how each
successive generation values ideas differently based upon their own combination
of nurturing and experience that produces a unique perspective. It helps to see better using that perspective but it is limited.
An aggregate measure of social mood can be seen as the driving force of these perspective changes but the divides between
the successive generations add the texture needed to prompt meaningful change.
That these changes happen slowly as one generation loses incremental influence
over time is a key part of the dynamic.
Moving from macro to intermediate
trending
It does not get too much more Macro than this view so far
but, from this point we can begin to use it to move forward into areas of social
interaction that define our specific challenges as marketers. This the where greater understanding of this perspective will eventually bring new technique. It holds a lot of promise and I see it as a broad frontier of technique. (really).
I have no doubt
some will read this and say whoa!, too much information! I answer back: The years directly
ahead of us are going to see substantial changes in shared values. These
changes will likely appear cumulative and continue for a couple decades as the
shared vision of the Boomers begins to fade and new ideas and energy are brought forward on every
issue imaginable. New businesses with suggestions for how to use technology to organize ourselves must see the root of the trend or risk applying old values that are not socially supported moving forward. If you begin by understanding that social mood is a key underlying issue in your market, that it is natural, that we are collectively doing what we need
as a free society, (and that as marketers), these changes are always reasonable
even if very challenging; then it will become obvious that group
dynamics associated with the new organization in the digital realm is so much
more than an opportunity to get valuable feedback. It is that right now but it can be much more. As marketers, it is a chance
to grow ourselves through many different kinds of relationships in ways that
will endure and deliver on the very promise that marketing first made decades
ago. Socially speaking, yes, it is pretty damn deep. Social media, best seen as an expression of who we are right now, is telling us we
are reaching to grow and in the process will change to value smaller group associations
more as we break down larger groups into focused teams that self organize. This will happen alongside a developing social mood that will reflect
generational turnover, and all the trend threads needed to support the assertion here. And while all conceptual here so far, there is a quantitative angle that will wait to be discovered eventually.
So it is not enough to
sense where the immediate trend in consumer interest and taste is going. To
really benefit, businesses need to be able to see this large social trending structure and
respond to group dynamics and trend dynamics that give us strong clues to where momentum is going. As marketers, when we recognize the root trend we recognize basic social values, and that makes us more in tune during times that are sure to have short term cross currents.
Ready, set, go!
The last part of this post/series
is about how social media offers the initial parts of a collage of developing themes (I will add to these over
time). These themes are threads that businesses can be built around
and marketers can work to enhance this developing opportunity because they will
be socially supported:
Developing
Themes
1. Is creativity on sale ? No, what has gone on sale are the ways of using many commonly regarded forms of creativity. Look to forms of social media that may help us see how to target creative endeavor (and use creativity) so it may be valued appropriately at a time when so many things are changing relative value. So modal increments of creativity are being repriced but creativity is as socially needed as ever. How to repackage it is the important trend.
2. railroads & factories are to blacksmiths and candle makers, as the internet is to old media's FCC protected business model. (only this is an even larger social trend and seeing the root trend as discussed here shows why this does not stop with this one industry example)
In the late 1800's everyone needed metal crafts and to light the darkness as much as ever only how we got it changed because we changed. We got organized while we became generally much more optimistic toward the future after the Civil War. We will do the same with the internet thing by multiples even as social mood develops the other way in a social correction. Watching social media develop alongside the developing social mood we can see strong supporting reasons for self organizing into tighter groups this time, not larger groups, and these will be aligned by specific interests, input, and feedback that supports participation. The cost of inclusion is going up as having 1000 friends becomes less and less meaningful. Community, all kinds, will become valued themes as we strive to serve our smaller versions in ways that are socially valued. Social media will be instrumental in this process. It already produced the blogosphere and that is causing us to think about how content is valued. For a further hint, ask yourself how social media (a version of it with a more customer friendly attitude), will be able to use the trend in the (now second on the list, 'multi channel shopping changes retail') latest Good Reading article...it is up to marketers to change the environment and the expectations. Sophisticated audiences demand two way opportunities. The old one-way dynamic will soon be seen as a generational dinosaur.
3. Shareware….think about what is driving
this trend in light of the separate discussion
around Universal hardware/software
interfacing … business themes created narrowly defined use and false obsolescence
by making gadgets dependent upon special software. This is a pure contradiction
to the developing era of choice and will be changed in time in ways that affect everyone.
4. The CPM was dented by the uncontrollable and ubiquitous "click". If ever more sophisticated consumers using the digital realm are reluctant to click because of spam, spy ware, and bad assumptions about what is reasonable, then how does Choice and specialization get built into a forward thinking marketing plan that truly seeks to engage their market? Social media's manner of adding specialization to needs will augment progress the same way generalization did in factories serving mass markets. By adding the different flavor of a social correction this time instead of social expansion (back then) we get a result that is always appropriate and one that marketers can use to make incremental steps to truly engage their customers in the era of Choice. It's about being better marketers. Seeing social media through the root trend tells us a lot.
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