In this section I focus upon generational dynamics that suggest the real strength in the unfolding trend of social media is yet to come and will, in large measure, be the result of a group process (social trending) that requires generational turnover in order to unleash the momentum of creative power needed to change small group dynamics, and that is the ultimate promise behind what we see as social media right now. So what?
In this description are enough details for how marketers at all levels should see and think about using social media to eventually move beyond the individual and harness the potential in what is impulsive group behavior that will develop in the digital environment over the coming decades. This isn't just another marketing channel nor a separate dynamic of the promotion "P". Digital environments that are now forming are like new real estate springing up from nowhere. The approach Boomer's take (very generally) so far is in keeping with the cycle of economic prosperity we have collectively experienced for 25+ years. The next and dominant phase of growth in this trend will be characterized much differently and needs a new generational mindset to create it. I draw an several resources to add perspective in this post.
Technical analysis of trending is a discipline owing to financial market behavior, so why mention it here? This post, and site in general, uses ideas from several disciplines outside of marketing to add perspective. It is essentially a translation of different ways of seeing trending. During times of significant change this kind of perspective is needed and the beauty of this post is that the very subject being explained has made this possible. Social mood, the underlying theme of this blog can be seen in anecdotal form or data driven form. Both are very useful and, in a separate discussion can tell marketers more meaningful ways of seeing/using data about group behavior. The idea of social mood came from TA endeavors more than 70 years ago. fast-forward....
The world is now seeing more content than ever before available for those hungry to find it. The key is how to get it. The very sound bite culture we have seen develop in a few decades is about assimilating ideas for quick use. Social media is the next gigantic step in the same trending process that will get us more organized so we may become more effective and one benefit of social media will be to enhance productivity in small group settings. Forward thinking marketers are already benefiting from this and the early winners have taken to the digital environment to engage and listen to what customers have to say. And while what we hear about today does not specifically use small group dynamics, the niche nature of how things are moving (think mass specialization) are pointing the way. Seeing social mood develop adds to this sense greatly.
Since so many long established organizations must reorganize in order to meet these new challenges, and that level of change is often extremely uncomfortable, the intention of this section is to look at why this is the case and how seeing this root of the trending process is essential to re-energizing the creative mindset of any group of marketers who wish to do more than follow the leaders.
A new Perspective on Generations (well, 1996 new anyway)
The authors of the book The Fourth Turning borrowed an ancient Greek perspective of a basic human cycle called the saeculum, or a varying period approximate to a long human life. These two authors (use the links if interested) apply a seasonal paradigm on top of this notion and in each season they recognize a generational archetype that follows this four season concept in unison. Its novel and very interesting, especially the detail with which they apply to demonstrating this repeating human cycle.
The discipline they apply to their explanation is no different than what market technicians do in describing trending in (free) markets where things are sold in an auction format. CMTs (chartered market technicians) use differing descriptions of these trends using math (the language of relationships) and historians use anecdotal accounts. The working concept of (aggregate) social mood is the intersection of these two endeavors. The basic requirement to see what I am referring to is a familiarity with a few similar dialects.< So demographically, if you like to travel in countries with different languages, you’ll probably like this concept a lot. >
The four basic recurring generational archetypes offered in the Fourth Turning are given the names of Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists. Use the links to their site to see where who, is what.
The relevance between technical analysis of trends and this historic perspective is apparent by using a skill set commonly referred to as chunking up and chunking down concepts in order see relevant themes. This skill is naturally acquired when you look at data a lot and give a lot of thought to how we see what we see in differing periods of time….long views versus short views. Charting data sets of differing chunks of time, of the same data shows you, upon reflection, for instance, that these four generational archetypes make sense even if week to week demands has us using Gen X Gen Y and even more detailed tags for demographic clarity. It seems rough in the present no matter how you look at it but by being flexible enough to jump in and out of these perspectives and not lose your position is the key to ‘seeing the forest’.
So I definitely encourage reading the book, even though it is 12 years old, because this level of trending is so chunked up it is still highly relevant even if anecdotal and general.
The main point I am making using this paradigm is in how each generation is capable of only so much innovation. The well does not run dry, it just tends to run in the same direction and that is in fact, the role of the generations, to change direction. A change in direction is what social media and digital social networking is demanding, will demand more of as soon as the multi billion dollar investments realize that Facebook’s significance is, as Chris Anderson says, is not a destination as much as a key feature (of engagement).
To expand on this simple thought let’s look at how the Boomers see the internet:
Web 1.0 was a disaster (one manner of seeing it) and while completely revolutionary socially, the initial financing failed because it was more vision that business model. Web 2.0 is trying very hard to address this through practicality and focus. In less than 15 years it is astonishing what we’ve collectively created and accomplished. Socially, Boomers run many of these businesses and as a culture we tend to focus upon this progress from a business-sense perspective….otherwise why bother? right? This must be seen as a loosely held value capable of changing quickly. The seasons of history demonstrate that change like this happens often and the reason to read the books I mention are to see how generational turnover drives this process from one perspective. This is why this discussion is derived from one bullet point and developed separately. So, anyone can make the case that Facebook is worth $15 billion if you see it through an old media (CPM) kind of perspective (and a Boomer is more likely to do that) but the key benefit derived from social networking will emphasize small groups, interaction, learning through sharing of specialized perspectives.
The basis of these four generational archetypes is pretty simple in how I see and think of it. Each successive (broadly described) generation is influenced by their parents raising them who were influenced by theirs but, these perspectives are altered inexorably by our experiences so we modify them and then pass along this updated wisdom to our kids take it and experience this perspective while being confronted with a different perception of a newer world. This basic contrast can be seen to cycle around these four archetypes and, here’s the real jist of generations, we tend to create and experience following this seasonal pattern of the saeculum (noun) (secular as adjective) which is really shorthand for what I call group process (trending) on a very large scale. I spent a few years seeing this clearly because I had to read a lot of crap to find the meat in comparing these works and applying them. You can do it in less than a summer’s worth of beach reading and I won’t charge you anything for the tip! Welcome to social media! The benefits come quickly when we share freely with like-minded people. Once we get organized into small, manageable groups sharing experience is what it will be about and discovery will be an agreed upon process. The strip miner mindset (aka pure selfishness) in this setting will be shunned. This process is evolving slowly and will gather momentum after the generational turnover. This is in fact, also a very natural conclusion to expect in a large social correction. That the obvious business sense around this outcome is lacking will be (one day) accentuated and not de-emphasized. This perspective is likely to be hard to swallow for business savvy Boomers, the far side of this thought is productivity and creativity far beyond our present limited sight. The best set of questions will revolve around what set of social circumstance would produce this kind of development?
Let’s try to keep this discussion more in the present; already feeling I’ve stretched the thoughts too far out. My intention in going that far was to imagine how do we get from here to there and what does social mood at an inflection point tell us about some pretty big changes that are happening? Much more immediate and regarding the developing culture of social media is the relevance of the following article:
Moms and Dads will appreciate what play means to your little one's development. This link gives an expected clinical assessment of the importance of play to social development for kids and adults. Play is practice and social media is play up till now. It is no surprise the Boomer generational mindset sees things in one light and the younger ones coming up now see it differently. So the generational mindset allows for large picture change and this incremental perspective on play suggests the blow by blow developments in the areas of social networking will migrate over time to more effective groups. Examples in nature, and social circles suggest strongly that these groups will be small efficient units sharing interests and ideas with a new discipline learned from social networking.
So I breezed over this generational issue but I encourage reading of the book, and their latest which I have yet to read: Millennials Rising. Big picture framing of current issues is the key to seeing today’s challenges in good light. I went as far as I did in this post in imagining the path of social media in our culture by going one small step at a time with very incremental thinking. This same approach is how to use this in a particular vertical regarding today’s pressing challenges. So it may seem like a gigantic prediction that Facebook is not worth $15 billion but there is much more useful ideas here for work a day marketers to employ without making this about predictions.
Like what? · Here are a few developing themes worth watching:
- Social networking is a feature, not a destination (or especially a business platform)
- Understand the perceived value of social networking to older boomers versus GenX and Gen Y. In a recession the less sophisticated Boomers are liable to be fertile territory and require different treatment
- Social networking is being driven (by us) to organize us in smaller and smaller groups which is the opposite of Facebook’s old media mindset (with a Web 2.0 coat of paint)
- Macro theme: specialization and organization go hand in hand
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