The Root Trend is three years old this month. It's existed as a sketch on scrap paper for two years before that as a coffee coaster. I posted a similar diagram in the pages section of the blog a while back.
This is the root trend as I see it:
Why it matters is because consumer behavior and social mood are constantly interacting but never more noticeably than during inflection points like the one we are (collectively) navigating now.It's a great time to stop and look closer.
Over these three years there were several important social trending patterns I've noticed the most. The first became its own discussion and is about how media tools are being changed endlessly now by a combination of technology, social momentum, and the and developing social mood. It makes sense to me because I am able to combine three sets of understanding to better see the forces driving the industry. I call it the (industrial) (r)Evolution of Media. The second is even more general and related to branding issues. Brands, as I see them, can be highly subject to changes in social mood. This is a potentially big topic and another post I continue to work on is how financial brands are emblematic of an important challenge in the branding universe right now. This post is still being written but right now let's look a more immediate brand issue that is reflecting social mood. This thread also touches media issues too so it is timely and relevant.
I might have taken time to improve the diagram (above) a long time ago but since the trending issues I write about here qualify as the least understood "hobby" I've ever had, I tend to offer only the examples from the outside world that seem to shout the loudest. I've watched (and am watching) a lot of trends develop with the always developing social mood in mind. It is a remarkable platform from which to appreciate social trending. In this diagram (above), in the disc representing consumer behavior, is what I suspect is a deeper inherent value to those focused on consumer behavior. I have not yet clearly reflected it in the diagram but the point is clear to me. Maybe this developing Face Book thread from the past two weeks will help explain some of what I mean:
Face Book is a social phenomenon because it has positively reflected more than one core social value shared by many people at the time of the mass adoption (these past few years). Up till now, however, it has not reflected the social correction in a very predictable manner.
Then, in the Sunday NYT Magazine 8/30/09, ran a story called Face Book Exodus. The story was likely chosen because it would be controversial and grow legs as Google searches now reveal how the very idea that Face Book is in decline was being fought, emotionally, by both sides of the argument. There's always an emotional argument in the digital universe.
From a social trending perspective, (using social mood), Face Book is destined to morph into something very different. Why?
The root trend diagram shows consumer behavior as a series of concentric rings that I envision as spinning at different rates of change. The best I can explain this, is to point to how values we share always change according to some basic least common denominator that reflects social mood and these core issues change at very different rates reflecting what you might call a different degree of the larger social mood. And since all social trending can somehow be represented as an expression of polarity, the extremes in each core value are expressed by (large) groups independently from any apparent correlation.
The social thinking that encompasses shared perspectives on the financial crisis and the developing Face Book trend we see the overlapping issue of "social trust" and how our shared perception of it is changing. Trust is, in fact, a reflection of cooperation and a key element of all our social creations. One only need to pick up the headlines to note how matters of social trust are questioned in a growing number of areas in our society right now. How we employ or update our sense of social Trust relies on our perception of the always uncertain events of the future. The banking crisis certainly brought basic concerns to bare. Now, however, we see that our penchant for sharing parts of personal ourselves through the public social networking tools is being questioned. The NYT Magazine article was quickly followed up by other digital articles both pro and con on the subject. One might fairly question the issue's primary relevance until two days ago when it was seen how even the President himself warned young school children to be careful of what they post on Face Book. Common sense? Yes, of course but, Face Book has been an emotional trend for many adopters and as such it requires a reality check right now.
What was once seen as an unnecessary concern (toward sharing your life openly) now may become a shared concern. What changed or is changing? One simple thing: Our shared perception of the uncertain events of the future is shaded with a pessimistic tone that has been increasing lately. This is a natural dynamic during a social correction. Some call it negative social mood but I prefer to link it to an entire social group process that is akin to a macro social expression: a social correction. In a soundbite, a social correction is a process by which we collectively figure out what matters most to us...as a society. What really matters?....wherein we cull or change things that do not hold up to scrutiny and recommit to those values that are supported. What Really Matters? This is a phrase I use often because as social mood changes how we collectively value things of all kinds change. This certainly matters to issues related to consumer behavior.
Is Face Book going away? No.
Consumer behavior and social mood have a common intersection. Social mood is a polarized behavioral matter that swings over and over again from positive mood to negative mood....from periods of social expansion to periods of social correction. With each swing from one extreme to the other some aspect of our perception changes and that in turn affects how we gather, what and how we share, and what we create. It is not quite so simple: The universe of consumer behavior witnesses these 180 degree trends in their underlying behavioral impulses and not just as on or off switches but, but instead, as degrees and they each move at different rates.
Brand issues matter greatly in these same thoughts and that is what I'll write about next. If a period of social correction is going to test (and maybe change) a core assumption or emotional anchor that is in any way related to a brand's image, then these times are when brands grow the potential to be liabilities as much as they were valuable assets of the business in other times. This is about probability and the randomness of what can happen in markets as it relates to core attributes of brands. The rules of chaos always apply.
Given a large enough social correction, many brands are more likely to see the potential for reversal, not just in sales but in their positive image if the changing social values come close to their basic emotional connection in their market's mind.
Face Book's brand image: share myself and my life freely with my "friends". Connect and Grow. (my perception)
The changing perceptual reality associated with social mood may turn this into: "Oh, that's not such a good idea?" Why?!" "Oh no!"
The Face Book brand image will have to change to meet this changing (reversing) perception (when it happens) or it will erode confidence in the brand quickly. (? Does Face Book actually have a strong brand? Can it be replaced easily? These are a good questions that will get answered) Back in the 1980's when Tylenol's core brand was threatened it innovated and simply invented a factory sealed capsule when trust was very reasonably questioned about their brand. Social mood assisted the marketers back then and is less likely to in coming years. In the 2010's will the name Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch ever inspire others in need of investment banking services to trust them? Probably not. Those brands are probably more prone to be liable for stirring negative emotions in the years ahead no matter how much brand equity they enjoyed once upon a time. Are the social concerns limited to specific brand names? Will it stay contained or will there be a reasonable threat to similar financial brands. These thoughts can be used to see crisis that erupts near any brand's emotive center differently.
In the 2010's American's will continue using social networking as it becomes more and more important to personal success but, the concern about letting the right people in and keeping others out will have to be addressed effectively along with evolving themes for what is appropriate behavior in the newly settled parts of the digital frontier. Consumer behavior in the digital environment is affected by the chaotic nature of the digital environment itself. This won't change soon but implications from there are bound to seep into our everyday lives outside of the digital realm as we are now creatures of both places. Social mood plays a role in all these differing areas related to human groups because it is part of our basic social nature. Consumer behavior cannot avoid being impacted by changing social mood. Where these changes happen is near shared values that are related to basic human impulses or needs. This matters a great deal to marketers.
Note* As often noted in this blog....the subject of social mood and much of its development are attributable to Robert Prechter who took the early ideas of Ralph Elliott and expanded them greatly. This blog is a trail of thoughts I've developed personally in reflecting upon how our basic social nature affects our actions as consumers. The two cannot be mutually exclusive.
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