These pages are about how social mood, the primary social trend, influences all others we see at work in the markets we serve as enterprises and marketers. In order to see this chain of causality correctly, how you focus upon social mood and work from that broad basis, matters a great deal. Often, when in conversation discussing the idea of social mood, I find those I am talking with applying it as if it is a personal experience. This is natural but not helpful because personal experiences tend to magnify the issue being observed and it becomes very easy to lose a proper perspective.
Social mood is a reflection of the fact that we are all part of a herd or flock of people with specific social tendencies. We are social animals and that broad fact has predictive qualities. Social mood is polarized....positive or negative, expansive or corrective. From these two basic primary states we can see it affect (very broadly) the three basic social expressions of trust, social unity, and growth (in the chart below).
My favorite of these three social expressions to look at (right now) is trust. Why? Right now we can see so many examples of how the changing polarity of trust is being expressed by groups of people very large and small, and not just in obvious places related to financial issues. From the perspective of social mood it is both predictable and obvious. We can see the most macro circumstances affected by changes in our shared perception toward each of these basic social expressions, and we also can see it manifest in our smaller (informal) group settings. This is what I mean when I suggest that social trends are a group process. If we avoid personalizing experiences attached to trends we observe then it is easier to get a feel for the relative size (importance)of the social trend we are watching. I began thinking it helpful to see these three basic expressions as "least common denominators" a few years ago. They tend to manifest as social impulses and that means they are primary parts of overall shared behavior...of the creative expression of groups. This is important because it helps the observer begin to appreciate if overlapping expressions might be combining to create change in a specific social endeavor (a trend). This analytical endeavor is no different than a mechanic pulling something apart to see how it works. Businesses do this everyday in the realm of marketing. Yes, this remains in the realm of 'soft science' but the analytical documentation that is possible runs deep inside of each industry built to serve people and this creates opportunity to see what really matters to our market on a new level of depth. That is why I call this the root trend. One potato properly cut into quarters can produce four plants each with the potential to produce as many as 8 to 13 new potatoes. The same can be said of social mood as it directly influences three of the most basic social expressions (by groups or markets) below.
Are there more than these three least common denominators that can be seen to react directly to social mood? Yes. Each basic social expression is expressed over time having a polarized dynamic. What is most helpful to me in looking at these three is how they can be objectively measured if you think about how to properly capture the basic expressive nature. Each of these expressions, however, is also processed personally alongside emotional content that we produce naturally as a part of who we are when operating inside as part of a social group. Expressions of trust, social unity, and our perspective toward growth are seen/experienced emotionally by us on some level as soon as we participate in a formal or informal social group that encounters issues related to any of these three basic social expressions. They are foundational expressions of groups of people (markets) in social settings.
How does this affect the market your enterprise serves? How might this affect the position of your brand over time? It's worth approaching your market from this broad perspective as you build ideas to test over time.
Posted addendum 9 29 09: Bloomberg announced plans by the Federal Reserve today to no longer allow credit cards to be issued to people under 21 without a parental co-signer. We can draft them to fight legally but credit worthiness, now, does not seem realistic until after 21 years of age. Appreciating this from the outside is easy. Applying it to solutions meant to serve changing markets is another matter. Both detachment and engagement are needed to put these kind of observations to work. History is always valuable in this regard.
