Social mood is about how large groups of connected people perceive the always uncertain future. Positive mood sees groups more likely to emphasize where they agree, expand, build, and grow. Negative mood manifests overall tendencies to emphasize differences, consolidate previous gains, evaluate, and correct or pare all kinds of "things" and shared values that are perceived to not really matter most (at this moment). This is, of course, very general. Moreover, it is because we humans built a world with digital communications capabilities that social mood is now being conducted though larger & more numerous groups, and across borders and distances never possible before now in all of human history.
Comparing social mood to systems of moving social weather is perfectly justified on many levels so long as you see it as coming from within and not being an reaction to outside forces.
Yesterday I found myself talking with people in California about the emerging social protest in the upper midwest. As of this morning it seems to have spread to several states. My point yesterday was that when this "virus" (the word I used yesterday) spreads to California, and it will go there soon, the ramifications of spending decisions will begin to be felt nationwide (and which state you live in will really matter more than ever). I was asked in passing if this is connected to what is happening in the middle east right now.
The best way to describe social mood is as something that emanates from groups of people as it spreads amongst individuals in interconnected groups. It is a naturally occurring predisposition to look toward the uncertainty ahead and share these generalized images with each other. It is out of these forward looking generalizations that we take and share with the many other groups we are connected to, in all areas of our increasingly complex lives, and then use them ourselves to build (or take down) using this emotional foundation. So, the developing social mood flows across national borders like weather systems and that is something you can count on. There is, however, the different charters of each society of people to consider. These agreements, like our US Constitution, provide for all kinds of circumstances that arise over time. Some of these charter agreements are built better than others and what seems to be essential these days is for disgruntled groups to be able to participate in the discussions about change.
So the real difference between what is happening in the middle east and the kinds of social anger we have being discussed in our media this week are the remedies for resolving what really matters most right now. In places where authoritarian rule exists this dynamic may prevail (containing many social impulses)until mood corrects further or it may break the existing system right now and large groups will demand change, even if it is not agreed upon what specific change is needed. Not all periods of social correction produce these dramatic changes in societal charters. In well chartered societies that are prepared for disagreement, we will see increasingly polarized positions and acts of disobedience spread from group to group and place to place. These actions are meant to test the very structures we built together as we collectively determine what really matters.
It is very common to hear people fondly refer to the demonstrations of the 60s and the other social dynamics back then that created both stark contrasts of shared values and our eventual national meeting of the minds to absorb these differences into our national psyche. What I've seen recently are political acts of disobedience that are unprecedented in my life. They seem to reflect a new normal that is somehow socially ok. Call the President a liar in public? Deny a recent election's results by staging no shows? Outrage and acts of great defiance within the construct of political discourse is not unprecedented in US history but you have to go farther than the 1960s to see the best parallels (IMO) or the new extremes we will be seeing. I think a better comparison for now is to the 1850s and 1860s when members of Congress still carried knives and sidearms on their person into the chamber, and when fist fights and other violence was not yet only part of history books even though the US was expanding territorially and economically. Various aggregate social behavior measured by our money is obviously not always the best measure of social mood because money can be changed more and faster than the social weather, harming its immediate metering benefit. It is how we use static forms of value (in specific ways)that often give us a good sense of significant periods of mood change.
PBS produced some fantastic historic perspectives of the period around the civil war. They are really worth watching. The war was the cumulative result of years of social anger and polarity brought on by declining social mood. The purpose of periods of social correction (large declines in social mood) is to correct previous growth so that the social unit is balanced and able to renew growth. I am not suggesting that we are headed toward a civil conflict now but, if that period reminds us of anything, it is how participation and the willingness to find common ground is at the very root of a diverse and free society. Acts of defiance may well become common as we are seeing but so often those acting are dismissing the concerns of their very own neighbors. Social bifurcation of all shapes and sizes will be resolved worked on at some point in the years to come. These imbalances are not always obvious or clear as we are seeing in Wisconsin. Oftentimes it will take a several passes at the same effort. The mid nineteenth century was a good example of this kind of a period of social correction and we would all do well to respect the kinds of trending processes we see developing around us now. This need not be done in a fearful way but, instead, by respecting how we each belong to many diverse groups that cross many (social, state, and international) boundaries and the various interests are not always in agreement between these groups, so we must resolve that patience and compromise are essential in the process.
Very often I refer to generational influences as an important element in social workouts of big agreements. The problem was that when the 1960s happened, it was all we could see right then as a nation. The lessons the middle east should be offering Americans today is how the wishes of a silent younger generation cannot be ignored lest we resolve that nothing will be settled right now in our own disagreements. Large and powerful generations of passionate people tend to dominate (as Americans have seen) but if the next generation is somehow ignored before they find their voice, and as agreements are made, then the root system under today's agreements will be destroyed and the next waves of bad social weather will produce catastrophic mud slides of anything made firm today. Count on it.
Our sound bite and slogan culture loves snappy lines so I will leave you with:
"You can pay me now or you can pay me later." is right up there with "Denial is not a river in Africa."
The US cannot afford to be short sighted while making decisions that are needed now. Sooner or later all the aging "me's" are going to have to realize that the math is not working now and that denying it will not make it go away.
Blog note: The redesign of this blog has not been able to move lately. I am working on a temporary solution. Still there is a lot going on in the world and especially the US right now in terms of incremental movement of trends all around the US. Year to date the busiest trend folders I keep capture social anger, though the issues surrounding trust (in a financial sense) seem ripe for discussion too. I'll leave the financial issues to the EWI gang. Three+ years ago we saw the same pattern where trust issues remained beneath the mainstream media surface while they rooted slowly in various financial markets. Is that happening again right now? My central point in this post is how mood changes can often be witnessed in geographically diverse places and soon seen to manifest a few miles away. Where we place our focus can often lead to missing key developments in a globally connected community. How these mood related issues work out depends upon where you are...and while emotional intensity is sure to be a hallmark of this era, if we each remember to breathe and wait before we react, then we will accomplish so much more together than if we give into rage and emotional demonstrations that reflect playground dynamics. If ideas and things and people need tearing down, then let's do it because our values have collectively changed and recognize how compromise is still the best way to exemplify a nation of free people. I think we can all still agree, that really matters. Dave
Ritholtz.com (The Big Picture) posted the link to this Twitterverse network chart seen to be influencing Arab attitudes (interesting visualization)
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