This was posted at my media blog. Social mood, as a topic, comes up less often over there but is always in the background of the seemingly chaotic change. At the root of all the certainty in all things social media these days is something very malleable.
Sub title for this post: Social mood has a significant influence on the business of social media.
It is my belief that the three big-picture social trending forces shaping changes in the media sphere are: 1) Choice 2) Generational Trending 3) Social Mood
Many posts here have mentioned Choice. (use the blog search feature for" Choice" in right column). It is the largest and most specific social trending dynamic related to media and why I discuss it first.
Generational trending issues pervade the strategies of most companies competing in the business of monetizing content. The predisposition toward seeing basic demographics as defining different opportunities is traditional. Every generation of Americans is affected by social mood. It is the third and most macro of the social trending dynamics affecting media's development as a business.
This blog, as a discussion, is an offshoot of another blog I write where only social mood is discussed. Social mood may be succinctly described as The Primary Social Trend.
Social media is a trend as much as it is a series of technical developments that ad up to something significant as the bow and arrow, the wheel, or the steam engine. Social media is a fundamental outgrowth of the digital age and is a tool that will develop and take many shapes over coming decades. If your business is social media, it is a fine business with great prospects but, if history shows us anything about new inventions with complex social utility, do not get too comfortable with any one manner of use. In the case of software driven tools this cannot be overstated. Social media tools and norms will change a lot over coming years. They will change right along with our shared outlook toward the always uncertain future. Moreover, thinking any one company has a long term lock on something so changeable as social norms is a risky assumption.
In several short years MySpace and Facebook went from poorly understood youthful distractions to mainstream tools that captured the imagination of the Boomer generation. This mass adoption by mature adults has been instrumental in infusing the social migration with the shared values only the Boomer's worldview could convey. Social media, now mixing with wireless mobile technology is transforming our sense of connectedness in profound ways.
Right now, it is understandable for anyone to draw an extrapolated trend line from here to the moon in terms of personal connectivity along the lines we are currently witnessing. In so many ways it is as good and better than anything imagined several years ago.
Here's the thing: Changing social mood can divert many social norms in a very short span of time. We've seen it happen all too often in the past. Here's a current for instance:
Changing social mood is at work in Egypt. In a less than free society, emotions get pent up for a long time and can suddenly topple long established norms.
In a free society like the US, where we are encouraged to "go do" according to outlooks of the various groups we attach ourselves to, we see incremental change also happens sometimes very quickly. One election later and a Democratic mandate is a Republican majority. Businesses providing services with obvious economic value are only tangentially attached to social mood but functional change and social adjustments goes hand in hand with emotional perceptions toward everything the future holds. Once upon a time there were many search engines and then, when we realized search was a commodity type service, there was one or two dominant services we talk about and use. That's not going to change again, is it? Once upon a time MySpace was It for younger Americans and that slowly spread across borders. Ok, so maybe Facebook figured it out faster and more in tune with the older Boomers who were the real mass adopters. That's not going to change again , is it? I submit that Facebook and Google are fundamentally different kinds of services. Google's search algorithm is standardized and exists outside of social networks. Social platforms on the other hand will remain in development as our ways of interacting and sharing are experimented with incrementally through the phases of a social correction. One fundamental change I see being distinguished is how assumptions of ownership will be forced to change. Companies increasingly see social networks as an extension of their human capital but existing platforms consider their own digital real estate as owned by the platform. This very simple distinguishing feature will eventually prove to be a flash point. Easement or Ownership? Moreover, it is easy to see how this aspect would be overlooked in a period of expanding and peak social mood and then later reconsidered during a correction in social mood.
In lieu of making this a longer post, here's what I am looking for:
In the not too distant future we will begin wanting more control over how our our information can be used beyond opt-outs. The privacy trend I began mentioning in 2009 is in many ways invisible right now (very short term) and may rightly be called "waning" at this very moment. It will come back into our shared focus and eventually grow to be an important concern nationwide. It will touch diverse parts of our social space (not only digital issues) and be the particular concern of both individuals and companies too. The response to this over time will be to erect walls and gates as well as other rules that offer a growing sense of formality. Think: etiquette. Any company giving lip service to these market demands, when they develop, will suffer. When it returns, multiple trajectories and increasing momentum will be key features. Why? Because negative uncertainty motivates many existing impulses in periods of time that are best referred to as a social correction.
Over time we (collectively) will take social media farther than we can imagine right now no matter how developed it feels. In time we will also turn the great digital frontier, where everyone is invited, into a compounds of multi-room houses where keys and locks are used. If you think about it, this is an expression of our social nature in periods of correction. Businesses may well seem to have the best reasons to protect that which matters most but people too will respond in this way over time because forward looking expectations will make that feel prudent. As these newer boundaries and fences are established, the frenzied aggregation of reach and frequency offered through channels like Facebook (where 500 million users supposedly commune) will likely see substantial change. We are not done creating new social channels.
If this time directly ahead promises anything consistently, it is this:
The cost (value) of membership (inclusion) is going up and when that happens fragmentation will again be dominant theme. Moreover, relationships with customers in many traditional industries will shift towards a sense of balance as interactivity changes how many enterprises see their customers.
Social media and social business applications are a very new tool and their format will shift again to reflect our forward looking view of what really matters most. Where exactly is that headed? The idea of a social correction is an important place to begin. Sometimes revolutions and evolution are easily confused and the pace of change is reflective of our generalized state of social mood. Sometimes, how we values things changes a lot in a short period of time. To me this implies a lot of change is ahead for all digital social tools. What does all of this mean to your business? It is worth thinking about...
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