post note: I tend to write with more than one audience in mind and because of that feel required to set up observations with general detail, and that is why many posts here run long. If you do not need the detail you might just move to the bold paragraphs. Dave
The events in Japan have been shocking and may well be worse than indicated by news reports lately.
Nothing can dispel horrible loss of life and the environmental concerns except for time, effort, and massive resources. If we look beyond the immediate concerns (and that is no small task) there is a beneficial way to frame these events by looking at the very big picture. Social mood offers a long term lens through which to see unfolding events in Japan and it shapes the long term views in a different light.
Social mood is a template for seeing typical social trending patterns in periods of positive and negative social mood. By its nature it is big picture thinking. Wave principle, a technique one level deeper, offers us a way for seeing the broader characteristics of social developments by chunking up periods of time to better see secular (very long term) trends. (observations made using wave principle over many decades eventually gave us socionomic theory-click link on right colum of blog for their site)
The conundrum of what really propels big social trends is why I spent time focusing on seeing what wave principle calls "degree of trend". This phrase, "degree of trend" refers to how waves of generalized mood are counted as they unfold and show us how and where social mood is in its larger trending process (at the present moment). Like Lego's building ever larger scaled patterns using similar shape & pieces, social mood unfolds at multiple degrees of trend and the implication of each of these "degrees" can be observed in various manifestations in a society. In a nutshell: Understanding degree of trend offers us great perspective on what short, medium, long, and very long term actually means when talking about social trending issues. There are no calendars in trending studies, only check marks denoting general events. Likewise, peaks and troughs in social mood at the same degree of trend shows us the kinds of issues (scale) that manifest at different levels of significance (degrees of trend).
How might we view long term events in Japan is to make assumptions and correlations that go beyond the moment? I saw an article (link at post bottom); it discusses how even before the earthquake, Japanese officials were deeply concerned how social concentrations of various resources in Tokyo made the society extremely vulnerable. The government effort will be enacted to decentralize Japan's vast resources and to also do this in a way that may help rejuvenate lagging rural parts of the country. Apparently, bullet trains are great for commuters but contribute to overloading resources into one location and adding to perceived vulnerability. Keep in mind how changes to how we (collectively) view the always uncertain future, are often very subtle.
Japan, when viewed from a very long term perspective is most likely in the third leg of long term social correction of the previous expansion that peaked in the late 1980's. From this longer perspective, present events are painfully taxing their ongoing efforts and this is certainly not meant to make light of these challenges. Their larger (degree) social correction as a society of a previous long period of social expansion will continue and end sometime in the years ahead. This is a kind of patterned behavior in the history of nations and there are different ways to see these events. Socionomics offers the most flexible and far sighted lens to view these recurring patterns.
Nations can be seen to go through months and years of these social corrections. They present as a kind of national struggle to fix perceived wrongs and accrued imbalances but they have purpose and there is even more purpose in seeing them this way. Over the time and events accompanying social corrections, nations will focus on the core values that matter most to them and eventually reorganize themselves socially, increasing the order that will later support broad social expansion; when this finally begins in Japan it may well be the beginning of what could prove to be a remarkable series of successes for our cultural world neighbor and friend. why?
Social corrections tend to revisit old problems that were previously left unresolved during other larger periods of social correction. These tend to be the really difficult problems that linger and worsen when unchecked in a society. For instance, in the US we have seen racism come up over and over and that is partly due to our diverse nature and the fact that we are a collection of many smaller regional cultures under one roof. Just look at the smoldering mess in the middle east. In Japan, one very big issue there is energy. Thirst for energy helped to precipitate WWII when the US infringed upon their easy retrieval of oil from various south Pacific countries. Japan is a nation hungry for energy resources and current events there now are exposing this raw nerve. Who knows? This could turn out to be their strength one day if they plan now to succeed later. As problematic as energy will be in the years just ahead for Japan, I suspect that Americans might testify to how specific societal weaknesses can be turned into expressions of strength when a nation is forced to examine it core shared values over time in a productive manner. Of course, racist attitudes can be slowly changed and energy sources must be discovered but history shows how both kinds of endeavors are often a function of society's discipline and creative capacity.
In the meantime, Japan must make difficult choices about how to allocate all kinds of social resources so that the country is prepared to experience sustained social expansion in the face of any natural eventuality. (And of course, this is not meant to ignore the critical present tragedy) Population decline is an ongoing issue (and is a symptom of the kinds of social imbalances expected during a very large degree social correction). The US will eventually deal with shades of this same issue as we too will struggle with how to allocate resources in a society that needs to rejuvenate itself and its productive capacity without incurring massive debt.
Social corrections are a societal (group) process that enforces a corrective dynamic to look at critical ways to reorganize social capital that enables later expansion. Of course, societies do come and go but this natural cycle can be seen repeating in ever larger patterns over time and can be seen reliably to cycle back around to old unresolved issues that affect the creative capacity of a nation of people. Earthquakes are also a natural legacy of the Japanese culture. So too is their great need for energy in our modern world. Energy modernization and social resource decentralization are the kind critical themes you would expect see at his degree of trend of Japan's developing social mood. And much as Japan may be seeing dark days right now, they also might soon be working meaningfully towards the resolution of these most critical issues.
What really matters most? This is the underlying question that naturally brings the big issues to the public focus during social corrections of all sizes. Depending upon the size (degree) of the social correction, the issues brought up will differ or, in the case of natural disasters it can be forced. And while this generalized observation is worth a more detailed analysis, it is enough for now to point to how this broad set of observations can be used in different ways and even within key industrial verticals in a society. The only requirement to make this happen is to mix a socionomic mindset with deep subject knowledge.
Seeing current events and social change through the lens of the big picture can be very helpful during especially trying times.
Kan Told To Decentralize Japan on Anihilation Danger to Tokyo Bloomberg 3 11
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