This post is a timely example of how some short term noise is part of a much longer term process. It's a longer read again, but is worth it.
Making the case for using socionomics in business with an example
Post summary:
Longer term social trend development can be visualized, with the aid of relevant medium term issues that fit in a general hierarchy of social responses experienced (collectively) by large groups as the developing social mood moves through its own cycles. This is not intended to be exacting (like a calendar) but it is much more practical than you may imagine, especially if you are in a particular business and looking for catalyzing events.
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The current explosion in privacy concerns has its roots in social mood (very generally) and more recently as experienced back in the early part of last decade between late 2001-2003.That time was an important low in social mood that produced hints about today’s newly observed reactions and beyond. Also important, in a much longer time frame, is how matters related to general privacy are written into our social charter with varying levels of specificity.
One fundamental lesson socionomics offers us in seeing social trends is to always begin from far back as possible to gain a larger perspective on where the trend fits amongst other group processes going on in the society. We are each a product of our individual society and are greatly influenced by the specific concerns and groups processes happening there both now and over longer time frames that we may (individually) only acknowledge generally but not talk about regularly. It is the connection between short term events and long term developments that challenge us all the most but like any long division problem, there are general ways to reduce the problem to the larger influences and then use those to visualize your enterprise in that specific trending depiction.
An example I have monitored follows:
Right now, privacy concerns are being expressed in reports as annoying localized incidents of commercial enterprises doing things with our personal (digital) information that may be harmful if used improperly. If you allow your focus on this matter to be trained for you the way news reports suggest, then you will never see how or why this issue can develop much more as I expect in time. As social mood follows a predicted path and commercial enterprises everywhere are forced to adapt to sharply changing shared values, privacy concerns in the digital realm will begin to dominate and (US) society at large will produce a dramatic series of responses in order to re-gain control of that dynamic which will soon be perceived to have lapsed.
I first visualized this three to four years ago because I needed it to see how larger trending events would be catalyzed in the business of monetizing content. I needed to visualize how smaller steps would either lead to big changes I expected, lead away from what I imagined, or have no bearing (in the longer time frame). So the question was, to me, how will we get there from here in the larger trending process that I already saw clearly through the lens history offers. The point of this post is not to discuss this larger trend but, for clarity's sake, it involves a generalized reorientation of the media enterprise so as to effectively monetize content. This is both a critical service and business function in the US, and around the world.
So, first came this bigger picture trend of "how will we change businesses around to serve our changing needs in light of new digital infrastructure?" and I saw this simply by refocusing larger history as it is available to everyone through the socionomic perspective. When I did, an obvious answer was presented. And because I knew the industry in question, I saw several specific medium term challenges preceding this larger event and even today they are talked about as key developments across the industry. One example is updated and effective measurement of individual activity (use data). This change we are seeing is not being done cooperatively (with the market)and is being co opted by technology. The subject of this media transformation is the second blog I write (and is linked on the upper right of this blog) and is all a direct result of socionmic thinking combined with considerable industry experience. Both blogging efforts are an attempt to offer specific examples of this trending model in practical business use. And while I do not share everything I anticipate, I do it all in real time so as to expose obvious flaws (for me) as they may emerge over time. I've done this for my benefit in order to impose discipline on the effort. There is nothing like a cold pragmatic litmus test of functionality. So, the rest of this post is how I used socionomics to bridge the medium and longer term trends I suspect are beginning now. In the spirit of practicality, there are no guarantees the trends I see will fully develop but the incremental steps in that direction so far are remarkable enough to warrant close inspection of the process. Moreover, the longer term disposition of this view is reinforced by historic patterns of the relationship between enterprises and customer demand.
This was almost five years ago (or whenever it was that Google and Viacom first put lawyers into the ring over content/copyright issues in a billion dollar lawsuit that ultimately failed but is being appealed as of now.
So if I could see the ultimate big picture reorganization of how we exchange content for consideration as a society, then how we get there should/might be able to be visualized as well, provided a very current view of industry developments is possessed.
It is critical here to stop and acknowledge the possible vagaries of gov't regulation. Just as the FCC both helped and thwarted the business of media for many decades, it could be used again to control and contain perceived threats to our American system and with a dual purpose of serving existing power players. That would be a travesty as I see it now but, there is no certainty attached to how quickly larger social changes happen.
Having stated some concerns and issues, privacy trending in the US will likely be the catalyst to a fundamental realignment of the way Americans get content. Moreover, I suspect the world will copy this changeover because of obvious benefits that cut both ways.
In the meantime, however, we must contend with why our concerns about this social issue will grow so much. Most trends that seem fairy new are really not that new and that is how I got here. The newness is the wider recognition of the issue. The events surrounding the recognition have existed for a long time. The transition to a digital economy provided enterprises a window into a new reality. In our new digital reality, information is aggregated, correlated, traded, stored, and eventually, there is a digital record of everyone (in incredible detail) that includes many details never digitized in the first place. We have become efficient gatherers of detail. This last statement highlights the vulnerability of this area to social mood.
In all those legal disclaimers, (the ones we rarely read), we agreed to limiting liability for a set of behaviors that would allow the universe of business enterprises to know us thoroughly in order "to make our digital experiences better". In some cases, they can anticipate us better than we can ourselves. By itself none of this is threatening and that is why this trend is hardly a big issue right now but, it is growing wider awareness and discussion everyday. As/when social mood wanes considerably from where we are right now, and we discover more and more disclosures of questionable collections and stores of consumer behavioral information, our collective pessimism toward the uncertain future will change how we value these concerns. Public safety was quickly decided to be a dominant concern a decade ago. Privacy lost ground in the US at that time to the larger needs of the group. Individual consumer safety, on the other end of an emotional pendulum, will be produce much more noisy and contentious discourse and eventually, many new regulations and rules to protect individuals. With this trending process will be a generalized turnover in attitude about using digital services doe snot entitle enterprises to collect and store our data without guarantees of their own
The public view will eventually turn to these questions and decide they really matter. Elected representative have already begun addressing superficial aspects. In time the result will be a new class of enterprise that serve customer demand while respecting these new found shared values. Business always lags changing shared values and this core function of getting news, information, and various forms of entertainment, will follow all other consumer activities in the digital realm into a new era where tight control of information is undertaken purposefully.
This process will take several years and be part of a larger general transformation I alluded to earlier.
Larger social trends that unfold slowly, over longer periods of time place pressure upon the social structures and industry in place and can be shown to erode the weakest places in order to make room for the larger needed changes. When these views of different industries are available as streams of qualitative data, then deeper industry knowledge is essential to apply trending insight. This is exactly why socionomics will one day be a fundamental set of insights for leaders who need to see past the noise to find the signal in changing landscapes of business.
ps. it feels oddly appropriate that I would publish this post this am opposite specific news stories from overnight. A central cause of our old concerns may now be behind us but the larger issues related to social mood remain. Having seen the privacy trending issue changeover from one part of our social life to a much more generalized manifestation is all the more suggestive of how much of a role social mood has in our societal response. Negative social mood is not about negatively characterized events. If your head is stuck there then get it out! It is about self organizing properties inherent in every society and how every large group needs reprioritizing from time to time. This is a big reorganization coming but in the long term, it will have many beneficial consequences for the larger group.
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