* see post note added at end
Successful enterprises tell us where perceived value was yesterday and today. Consumers point to where it will be tomorrow. How we value things and ideas of all kinds changes as social mood changes...and what we pay attention to changes with social mood. Lately, there has been enormous attention focused upon how companies make money (create value) in the area of content. I point at these endeavors and markets in the broadest possible manner and not towards any one kind of business.
For five or six years we have seen an extreme experiments in social sharing as social networking moved into the digital ecosystem for the masses. There's no doubt, people want to share aspects of their life. There is also no doubt how this behavior will be subject to shifts in social mood over time. I prefer to point toward the larger shifts able to be seen using social mood because they point to basic structural change in how people want to be served by enterprises.
The Chief Executive of Forrester, George Colony gave a talk you can go watch here. In 20 minutes he talked about where he sees the internet headed and he does in a way readers here can appreciate. In a nutshell, an excuse me if I abbreviate a great talk entirely too much, the world wide web is likely to be replaced by a wave of app-like ecosystems across the internet. Technology certainly seems to bear that conclusion out but most ordinary people are left wondering what that that really means for everyday folk. Is tech really in charge of where we take the internet or is it something else? In periods of positive or expanding social mood, we might just wait and see. That is much less likely now.
In my very humble opinion, his vision can be guided towards content markets offering a little more meat on the bone by seeing through social mood and how consumers define value (create value) through their changing perceptions and through their behavior.
Apps certainly seem to be the short-hand tech development paradigm that has become mainstream practice today. Apps by their nature, create closed-like systems. I think the idea of Choice matters more. I have defined Choice in many posts over years over at the media blog that was spawned in posts here years ago. You may use the blog search to see just how often and in many ways I have approached it. Choice, in the way I use it as a social trend, is about getting content in the digital environment and how centuries of practice and behavior have been altered in just two decades. Demand has changed and will see enormous new shifts and this will change existing industries even more than we have witnessed so far.
In my thinking, the creation of value is what really matters...and to consumers that means getting Choice, for starters. It really is that simple. As social mood changes Choice will see subtle shifts that could rock many businesses off their business model because the early digital enterprises are simple copies of analog era business practices and do not reflect the massive changes in how transactions for digital content occur. They all ignore Choice in ways that serve their business needs. This reality has been covered up by large new successful digital companies that appear to have beaten old media companies to the digital frontier. The fight has been portrayed as if it is about old media versus new media. That way of seeing things is all wrong. In fact, it could not be more wrong.
Value to consumers in the digital ecosystem is about Choice and the old way of transacting is increasingly at odds with the perceived expansive freedom associated with the digital frontier. Picture a town with crowded streets, billboards everywhere, salesmen pushing offerings in our face as we stroll along for a view of our new surroundings. Increasingly, the anything is possible perception has been replaced by captive viewing that is increasingly limited because endless space wars are limiting creative potential. You could embrace these new managed and gated communities but they will soon be seen as left wanting of Choice. In short; good intentions driven by greed and chaos*** have taken over the scene for now. Mobile internet has been given to us by forward looking companies but what they really gave us was closed systems, not the open web experience. Users are captive and watched and served what they appear to be needed. Boy, that sounds bad when put that way, right?, but it does not have to be. App ecosystmes can be part of a chapperone style enterprise. The open web began falling away with mobile development and now the chief of Forrester says it will be a pervasive change. Essentially, in exchange for a little creative code writing we are incrementally handing over our freedom to wander and see whatever we Choose to see and do and instead agree to be served what someone else thinks is best for us. Trust has been extended up till now.
If you are a regular reader that last sentence says it all because trust and social mood are highly correlated during big swings. This issue will be a pivot point in developing digital markets for content.
At the risk of repeating myself, As social mood changes what we pay attention to changes and how we value things of all kinds changes. I am going to cut this post short and offer a single powerful slide I created maybe five years ago when Viacom sued Google for a billion dollars(it seemed like a lot back then). I saw this change and now I see it even more. It could go right along with what the Forrester Chief suggests is coming. It could completely agree with his vision if only one small change in approach is made. If some app enterprises shift their focus and fully face the consumers they serve....100% and nothing otherwise, then this is exactly what is going to result in an explosion of newly created value. Consumer facing enterprises could reset the web and all high quality content enterprises. 100% consumer facing enterprises could produce a new currency to redefine value in a way long overdue. In order for that to happen some gargantuan shifts will have to happen. There will be winners, losers, and those willing to recognize social change as it is happening. If you ever got caught in a rip tide or found a useful thermal of air, then you know they are invisible without some good idea of how to identify them at the right time and place. Social mood makes these events appear differently. To me, this is the future of content of all kinds as we work through this giant social correction of previous periods of expansion. Trust the customer consuming content first and only and they will trust you. That is the singular basis of this idea working. The rest is just tech details (and a lot of social change):
* I will be updating this post over holiays and consolidating it with the two previous posts on the same topic and shrinking it all down to a smaller profile. About Face Part 1 (a simple explanation), About Face Part 2 (A Basic Structural Change) The point of sharing these ideas is less about making a prediction and more about suggetsing where the big influences will shape ongoing events so that we can use existing momentum to fully exercise the freedom to be informed and to inform. I do not take this for granted especially in light of the trends I propose will drive these changes.
*** to be clear: greed and market chaos are both absolutely necessary and good. Any seeming opinion about the atmosphere (in that paragraph) was my own sense of consumerism and should be considered separately. Social mood suggests how we should see all market particpants as part of the trends being expressed and the main thing I am trying to highlight in this paragraph is how diverging shared values create images like those I attempted to capture. Our shared history offers many episodes of social expression extremes that are later sharpy diverted. Many. Seeing through social mood may allow us to consider trend directionality from the standpoint of specific changing behaviors. Sharing will not stop but some expressions will change a lot as mood corrects. This is where and how the larger forecast matters most. Once you know how to match up these forecasts (large chunks) with your market(s) you can use deep market knowledge to see both confirming and divergent issues. I submit that this kind of "seeing" is a zone of competitive advantage and why this is valuable.
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