The Root Trend

The Business of Monetizing Content To Change A Lot During This Social Correction (part 3)

* see post note added at end

Successful enterprises tell us where perceived value was yesterday and today. Consumers point to where it will be tomorrow. How we value things and ideas of all kinds changes as social mood changes...and what we pay attention to changes with social mood. Lately, there has been enormous attention focused upon how companies make money (create value) in the area of content. I point at these endeavors and markets in the broadest possible manner and not towards any one kind of business. 

For five or six years we have seen an extreme experiments in social sharing as social networking moved into the digital ecosystem for the masses. There's no doubt, people want to share aspects of their life. There is also no doubt how this behavior will be subject to shifts in social mood over time. I prefer to point toward the larger shifts able to be seen using social mood because they point to basic structural change in how people want to be served by enterprises. 

The Chief Executive of Forrester, George Colony gave a talk you can go watch here. In 20 minutes he talked about where he sees the internet headed and he does in a way readers here can appreciate. In a nutshell, an excuse me if I abbreviate a great talk entirely too much, the world wide web is likely to be replaced by a wave of app-like ecosystems across the internet. Technology certainly seems to bear that conclusion out but most ordinary people are left wondering what that that really means for everyday folk. Is tech really in charge of where we take the internet or is it something else? In periods of positive or expanding social mood, we might just wait and see. That is much less likely now.

In my very humble opinion, his vision can be guided towards content markets offering a little more meat on the bone by seeing through social mood and how consumers define value (create value) through their changing perceptions and through their behavior.

Apps certainly seem to be the short-hand tech development paradigm that has become mainstream practice today. Apps by their nature, create closed-like systems. I think the idea of Choice matters more. I have defined Choice in many posts over years over at the media blog that was spawned in posts here years ago. You may use the blog search to see just how often and in many ways I have approached it. Choice, in the way I use it as a social trend, is about getting content in the digital environment and how centuries of practice and behavior have been altered in just two decades. Demand has changed and will see enormous new shifts and this will change existing industries even more than we have witnessed so far.

In my thinking, the creation of value is what really matters...and to consumers that means getting Choice, for starters. It really is that simple. As social mood changes Choice will see subtle shifts that could rock many businesses off their business model because the early digital enterprises are simple copies of analog era business practices and do not reflect the massive changes in how transactions for digital content occur. They all ignore Choice in ways that serve their business needs.  This reality has been covered up by large new successful digital companies that appear to have beaten old media companies to the digital frontier. The fight has been portrayed as if it is about old media versus new media. That way of seeing things is all wrong. In fact, it could not be more wrong.

Value to consumers in the digital ecosystem is about Choice and the old way of transacting is increasingly at odds with the perceived expansive freedom associated with the digital frontier. Picture a town with crowded streets, billboards everywhere, salesmen pushing offerings in our face as we stroll along for a view of our new surroundings. Increasingly, the anything is possible perception has been replaced by captive viewing that is increasingly limited because endless space wars are limiting creative potential. You could embrace these new managed and gated communities but they will soon be seen as left wanting of Choice. In short; good intentions driven by greed and chaos*** have taken over the scene for now. Mobile internet has been given to us by forward looking companies but what they really gave us was closed systems, not the open web experience. Users are captive and watched and served what they appear to be needed. Boy, that sounds bad when put that way, right?, but it does not have to be. App ecosystmes can be part of a chapperone style enterprise.  The open web began falling away with mobile development and now the chief of Forrester says it will be a pervasive change. Essentially, in exchange for a little creative code writing we are incrementally handing over our freedom to wander and see whatever we Choose to see and do and instead agree to be served what someone else thinks is best for us. Trust has been extended up till now.

If you are a regular reader that last sentence says it all because trust and social mood are highly correlated during big swings. This issue will be a pivot point in developing digital markets for content.

At the risk of repeating myself, As social mood changes what we pay attention to changes and how we value things of all kinds changes. I am going to cut this post short and offer a single powerful slide I created maybe five years ago when Viacom sued Google for a billion dollars(it seemed like a lot back then).  I saw this change and now I see it even more. It could go right along with what the Forrester Chief suggests is coming. It could completely agree with his vision if only one small change in approach is made. If some app enterprises shift their focus and fully face the consumers they serve....100% and nothing otherwise, then this is exactly what is going to result in an explosion of newly created value. Consumer facing enterprises could reset the web and all high quality content enterprises. 100% consumer facing enterprises could produce a new currency to redefine value in a way long overdue.  In order for that to happen some gargantuan shifts will have to happen. There will be winners, losers, and those willing to recognize social change as it is happening. If you ever got caught in a rip tide or found a useful thermal of air, then you know they are invisible without some good idea of how to identify them at the right time and place. Social mood makes these events appear differently.  To me, this is the future of content of all kinds as we work through this giant social correction of previous periods of expansion. Trust the customer consuming content first and only and they will trust you. That is the singular basis of this idea working. The rest is just tech details (and a lot of social change):

 

* I will be updating this post over holiays and consolidating it with the two previous posts on the same topic and shrinking it all down to a smaller profile. About Face Part 1 (a simple explanation), About Face Part 2 (A Basic Structural Change)  The point of sharing these ideas is less about making a prediction and more about suggetsing where the big influences will shape ongoing events so that we can use existing momentum to fully exercise the freedom to be informed and to inform. I do not take this for granted especially in light of the trends I propose will drive these changes.

*** to be clear: greed and market chaos are both absolutely necessary and good. Any seeming opinion about the atmosphere (in that paragraph) was my own sense of consumerism and should be considered separately. Social mood suggests how we should see all market particpants as part of the trends being expressed and the main thing I am trying to highlight in this paragraph is how diverging shared values create images like those I attempted to capture. Our shared history offers many episodes of social expression extremes that are later sharpy diverted. Many.  Seeing through social mood may allow us to consider trend directionality from the standpoint of specific changing behaviors. Sharing will not stop but some expressions will change a lot as mood corrects.  This is where and how the larger forecast matters most.  Once you know how to match up these forecasts (large chunks) with your market(s) you can use deep market knowledge to see both confirming and divergent issues. I submit that this kind of "seeing" is a zone of competitive advantage and why this is valuable.    

 

 

Part II to the post About-Face is now posted here. Part one, below, was intentionally succinct. Part II offers some detail on how I see current trending opening a brand new divide in digital markets. This view presents both opportunity and obstacle for enterprises. This follow-up post, and Part I, has been my attempt to demonstrate how social mood can help see into big challenges in specific markets. I began considering the case of markets for content here several years ago when Viacom and Google first clashed legally over links and clicks(page down to oldest posts). At the time I likened it to the range wars on the old western frontier that led to fences and legislatures. Their legal face off lead to the big idea in these two current posts and will, in time, affect everyone. Social trends lead while businesses, industry, and government follow us where we are going. There is a lot of value in seeing trends from this perspective and it can help make sense of change in any market.

Socionomics is the best way I have found to frame the past and provide helpful insight to look forward in different sized chunks of time. This post from 15 months ago is as timely as ever given recent headlines. Data security and privacy is an obvious trending shared value in the US and elsewhere. Free Speech issues in the US and abroad will/are diverging now. The Arab Spring suddenly seems as if it could be an indian summer. As Americans have learned over time, a sound social charter agreement is only one of several parts needed to guard freedoms. These safeguards only frame the conversation and the ongoing discussion continues to be affected by the developing social mood. As always: broad social impulses lead diverse needed changes, and businesses eventually follow us dutifully. Sometimes it really pays off to back up as far as the social charter to see events more clearly. 

The Approaching Public Discussions re: Free Speech & (digital data)Privacy Issues (llink thread at end for these broad issues)

...more on the current digital (social) crosscurrents

The PR machine that is called Apple announced how the PC and Mac are being demoted to "just devices" the other day and that the move to the cloud is now on. Coffee with a friend over the weekend showed that even though he is a contractor for the gov't, he did not fully know what the cloud was yet because his work will not be headed that way but his brand new smart phone will show him quickly. The momentum headed to the cloud in business may be real but are the larger fundamentals in place in order to sustain the kind of anticipated growth?, or is it more hype than reality? Does the quality of hype make reality? (note the mood implication in the question) 

Based on the last post here, you may appreciate how any prediction of a huge move to the cloud would require a presumption that the current expression of positive mood will prevail.  An embedded trend in our move to the cloud that is dependent upon overall mood expressions is also how instead of buying a hard drive now we are predicted to want to rent a hard drive in return for a constant stream of payments in order to have the anywhere convenience and that we will trust the reliability and security of our stuff in the cloud. This kind of decision is mostly a rational (economic benefit) decision but if people around us were to begin openly questioning both the ongoing cost burden and security issues, the trend would see halting progress. IMO Never ending streams of payments for many new basic services built into our outlook is indicative of the larger degree of trend expressions we still see positively influencing actions. Anyone questioning this preconceived idea is foolishly pessimistic, right? 

I introduced what I see as several related macro ideas in the last post and feel obliged to point out how complex corrective social action may not always go as we expect from a glance based on positive or negative mood polarity. This is exactly why deep knowledge of an industry is critical to applying social mood modeling to unfolding trending. For instance, the link I offered for patent issues is such a deep source and he (and many well connected commenters) suggests that patents for software should not exist. That answer cuts both ways just like the opposite does now. There is no substitute for knowing a business deeply and then adding the model that uses mood as an aid. Since that last post I have seen the phrase "economic warfare" used in a few good reads where China openly criticizes Google.  One of the reads clearly suggests that the Chinese were (very indirectly) justifying hacking Google owing to their larger social framework's need for centralized social control...even if that control involves people who are not Chinese.  As a teen in the late 70's I had to use the non-powered grass cutter instead of the gas engine mower for "obvious safety reasons". And while you are simply deciding for yourself if that has any relevance (whatsoever) here remember that when some kinds of social values end, instead of correcting, the creative social energy is redistributed towards other valued social endeavors in the same way we might describe the allocation of capital toward a hot investment. There is an emotional component to all social values and group endeavors and the main question is how can the influence of that part be measured effectively(?).  Digitally, we cannot forget how all social trending respects borders somehow because we are all still branded citizens even if the logo is not always showing and mood in different places is not often perfectly parallel.

Socionomics shows us the weak seams where social change is likely.  Cyberspace is catalyzing these trending influences at such a times as to compliment the larger expression of mood (quickening changes).  In such an environment, seeing farther in a business is best subordinated to contextualizing right now...especially if right now includes some big extremes in social expressions; both here and across the borders. On my other blog related to media business (link in right column) I have emphasized how privacy concerns will grow to influence enterprises. The leap I skipped was how enterprises are likely to have increasing problems as well raising a growing chorus of concern adding significant complexity to any solutions. Suddenly we will hear demands that these new values be addressed because businesses move government faster than people do. The more universal and widespread the problem, the more likely an unexpected solution will come. Not all changes have to be regulatory but with election season around the corner and Congress powerless over larger social issues, that path may be easiest right now. However, at large degrees of trend expression, getting to the better answer will take several years, easily. Social mood clearly shapes our perception of what makes a good idea.

 

Clarifying and Classifying Information Rights = Define those rights, please?

5 recent links now added below...

As I see it, we are approaching a critical need for clarification of the rights conveyed by ownership of ideas and information.  This theme is where privacy issues originate in an age of digital sharing done by people and machine alike. Before we narrow our focus to privacy issues though we must first acknowledge how the related issues are also in critical areas:

Patents The system is a mess. Some enterprises have learned to cheat rely on the advantage of deep pockets in all matters involving litigation and arbitration. ('First, let's see if forgiveness is really needed.') Others believe that software and business method patents stifle innovation. But if the small players innovate better but gain no benefit from doing so where is the incentive? A correction is needed here according to respected sources but what is it? Is it a free market fix or specific rules?

Copyright A real threat to content was the digital video recorder but now, even that concern seems a little pale out on the digital frontier where piracy across international borders is common now. The bigger players are beginning to see how delivering on the idea of consumer's Choice is a path to profitability and security, though there are no complete answers right now.

Enterprise privacy How can a company compete effectively when technical complexity makes stealing information so hard to defend against and even to prove later? This may sound identical to the patent concern above but it encompasses computer hacking community. Consider what we heard about at Lockheed Martin this week. Yes, what we see now is mostly isolated. They key to using this perspective is seeing how that general mindset will eventuallt shift and that will change how enterprises and entire industries behave.

Personal privacy In the 1970's, 80's we were urged to tear up the carbon paper from credit card receipts.  Today, not long after a historic peak in mood we hear about concerns about how all of our digitized information being aggregated and used (most times fairly, and only occasionally illegally with tough results). Behavioral profiling does indeed make the internet better for people but, the slowly evolving question is: do we really know all the concerns we should be aware of and how to work around them? Is that even possible? A conventional mindset would suggest, simply, that this is not a problem now or yet. Social mood shows us, again, how our perception of these potential events will change and as consumers, this will affect the perceived utility of various products and services.

The question behind these concerns is this: What rights come attached to the ownership of ideas (IP) and our various kinds of (personal and enterprise) information? Of course there are laws and rules now but how has the digital environment created the need for updating? How can we assign the right to use our personal information if we do not clearly understand the rules governing these agreements to use our data? Distinctions need to be made. What responsibility do enterprises have to consumers?  Is regulation really where this is headed? What if people began to think?, "If it is not going to be defined clearly in a way that is enforceable by me, then why participate in their desired interfaces that cater to both customer & enterprise convenience?"  The genie isn't going back in the bottle. Is that really true? What if some rules favor those that do revert to old behaviors where control exists? For instance: Will we go back to making phone calls for purchases because web sites have one set of rules and phone calls another? The trade offs I am suggesting here are indeed speculative but all transactions are evaluated and reevaluated as necessary by all market participants. Ok, as of today so far so good, right? My main point, right now, is how correcting social mood will influence this process considerably and it is not hard to see how it may develop directionally. This mindset is essential.

It may be easy to think I am taking this too far...making too much of nothing. The rest of this post provides limited background on my opinion about how if anything, I believe I am underestimating the challenges. So take note. The times they are a changing:

Longer term trending shapes intermediate changes

This post is a timely example of how some short term noise is part of a much longer term process. It's a longer read again, but is worth it.

Making the case for using socionomics in business with an example

Post summary:

Longer term social trend development can be visualized, with the aid of relevant medium term issues that fit in a general hierarchy of social responses experienced (collectively) by large groups as the developing social mood moves through its own cycles. This is not intended to be exacting (like a calendar) but it is much more practical than you may imagine, especially if you are in a particular business and looking for catalyzing events. 

*

The current explosion in privacy concerns has its roots in social mood (very generally) and more recently as experienced back in the early part of last decade between late 2001-2003.That time was an important low in social mood that produced hints about today’s newly observed reactions and beyond. Also important, in a much longer time frame, is how matters related to general privacy are written into our social charter with varying levels of specificity.

One fundamental lesson socionomics offers us in seeing social trends is to always begin from far back as possible to gain a larger perspective on where the trend fits amongst other group processes going on in the society. We are each a product of our individual society and are greatly influenced by the specific concerns and groups processes happening there both now and over longer time frames that we may (individually) only acknowledge generally but not talk about regularly. It is the connection between short term events and long term developments that challenge us all the most but like any long division problem, there are general ways to reduce the problem to the larger influences and then use those to visualize your enterprise in that specific trending depiction.

An example I have monitored follows:

Borders Matter Even Though Social Mood Crosses Them Like Bad Weather

Social mood is about how large groups of connected people perceive the always uncertain future. Positive mood sees groups more likely to emphasize where they agree, expand, build, and grow. Negative mood manifests overall tendencies to emphasize differences, consolidate previous gains, evaluate, and correct or pare all kinds of "things" and shared values that are perceived to not really matter most (at this moment). This is, of course, very general. Moreover, it is because we humans built a world with digital communications capabilities that social mood is now being conducted though larger & more numerous groups, and across borders and distances never possible before now in all of human history. 

Comparing social mood to systems of moving social weather is perfectly justified on many levels so long as you see it as coming from within and not being an reaction to outside forces.

Yesterday I found myself talking with people in California about the emerging social protest in the upper midwest. As of this morning it seems to have spread to several states.  My point yesterday was that when this "virus" (the word I used yesterday) spreads to California, and it will go there soon, the ramifications of spending decisions will begin to be felt nationwide (and which state you live in will really matter more than ever). I was asked in passing if this is connected to what is happening in the middle east right now.

The best way to describe social mood is as something that emanates from groups of people as it spreads amongst individuals in interconnected groups. It is a naturally occurring predisposition to look toward the uncertainty ahead and share these generalized images with each other. It is out of these forward looking generalizations that we take and share with the many other groups we are connected to, in all areas of our increasingly complex lives, and then use them ourselves to build (or take down) using this emotional foundation.  So, the developing social mood flows across national borders like weather systems and that is something you can count on. There is, however, the different charters of each society of people to consider.  These agreements, like our US Constitution, provide for all kinds of circumstances that arise over time. Some of these charter agreements are built better than others and what seems to be essential these days is for disgruntled groups to be able to participate in the discussions about change. 

So the real difference between what is happening in the middle east and the kinds of social anger we have being discussed in our media this week are the remedies for resolving what really matters most right now. In places where authoritarian rule exists this dynamic may prevail (containing many social impulses)until mood corrects further or it may break the existing system right now and large groups will demand change, even if it is not agreed upon what specific change is needed. Not all periods of social correction produce these dramatic changes in societal charters.  In well chartered societies that are prepared for disagreement, we will see increasingly polarized positions and acts of disobedience spread from group to group and place to place. These actions are meant to test the very structures we built together as we collectively determine what really matters.

It is very common to hear people fondly refer to the demonstrations of the 60s and the other social dynamics back then that created both stark contrasts of shared values and our eventual national meeting of the minds to absorb these differences into our national psyche. What I've seen recently are political acts of disobedience that are unprecedented in my life. They seem to reflect a new normal that is somehow socially ok. Call the President a liar in public? Deny a recent election's results by staging no shows?  Outrage and acts of great defiance within the construct of political discourse is not unprecedented in US history but you have to go farther than the 1960s to see the best parallels (IMO) or the new extremes we will be seeing. I think a better comparison for now is to the 1850s and 1860s when members of Congress still carried knives and sidearms on their person into the chamber, and when fist fights and other violence was not yet only part of history books even though the US was expanding territorially and economically. Various aggregate social behavior measured by our money is obviously not always the best measure of social mood because money can be changed more and faster than the social weather, harming its immediate metering benefit. It is how we use static forms of value (in specific ways)that often give us a good sense of significant periods of mood change. 

PBS produced some fantastic historic perspectives of the period around the civil war. They are really worth watching. The war was the cumulative result of years of social anger and polarity brought on by declining social mood. The purpose of periods of social correction (large declines in social mood) is to correct previous growth so that the social unit is balanced and able to renew growth.   I am not suggesting that we are headed toward a civil conflict now but, if that period reminds us of anything, it is how participation and the willingness to find common ground is at the very root of a diverse and free society.  Acts of defiance may well become common as we are seeing but so often those acting are dismissing the concerns of their very own neighbors.  Social bifurcation of all shapes and sizes will be resolved worked on at some point in the years to come. These imbalances are not always obvious or clear as we are seeing in Wisconsin.  Oftentimes it will take a several passes at the same effort.  The mid nineteenth century was a good example of this kind of a period of social correction and we would all do well to respect the kinds of trending processes we see developing around us now.  This need not be done in a fearful way but, instead, by respecting how we each belong to many diverse groups that cross many (social, state, and international) boundaries and the various interests are not always in agreement between these groups, so we must resolve that patience and compromise are essential in the process. 

Very often I refer to generational influences as an important element in social workouts of big agreements. The problem was that when the 1960s happened, it was all we could see right then as a nation.  The lessons the middle east should be offering Americans today is how the wishes of a silent younger generation cannot be ignored lest we resolve that nothing will be settled right now in our own disagreements. Large and powerful generations of passionate people tend to dominate (as Americans have seen) but if the next generation is somehow ignored before they find their voice, and as agreements are made, then the root system under today's agreements will be destroyed and the next waves of bad social weather will produce catastrophic mud slides of anything made firm today. Count on it.

Our sound bite and slogan culture loves snappy lines so I will leave you with:

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later." is right up there with "Denial is not a river in Africa."

The US cannot afford to be short sighted while making decisions that are needed now. Sooner or later all the aging "me's" are going to have to realize that the math is not working now and that denying it will not make it go away.

Blog note: The redesign of this blog has not been able to move lately. I am working on a temporary solution.  Still there is a lot going on in the world and especially the US right now in terms of incremental movement of trends all around the US. Year to date the busiest trend folders I keep capture social anger, though the issues surrounding trust (in a financial sense) seem ripe for discussion too. I'll leave the financial issues to the EWI gang.  Three+ years ago we saw the same pattern where trust issues remained beneath the mainstream media surface while they rooted slowly in various financial markets. Is that happening again right now? My central point in this post is how mood changes can often be witnessed in geographically diverse places and soon seen to manifest a few miles away. Where we place our focus can often lead to missing key developments in a globally connected community.  How these mood related issues work out depends upon where you are...and while emotional intensity is sure to be a hallmark of this era, if we each remember to breathe and wait before we react, then we will accomplish so much more together than if we give into rage and emotional demonstrations that reflect playground dynamics. If ideas and things and people need tearing down, then let's do it because our values have collectively changed and recognize how compromise is still the best way to exemplify a nation of free people. I think we can all still agree, that really matters.  Dave    

 Ritholtz.com (The Big Picture) posted the link to this Twitterverse network chart seen to be influencing Arab attitudes (interesting visualization)

Seeing Change Through the Generations Versus Social Mood

The Noisy & Demanding Layers of a Social Correction

I watched Martin Scorsese's film about Bob Dylan last night on Thirteen as well as Charlie Rose's interview with the director right afterward. Watching his film with a socionomic perspective, the following point was (indirectly) driven home many times: Unlike periods of social expansion, times of social upheaval (change) demand most people stake out positions on the issues of the day. If you are looked up to by any group as a leader (of any sort), this seems to be doubly important. Joan Baez commented emphatically about the turbulent times and how they 'demanded you take a position'. She noted, 'you were either for the war or against it. You either supported Martin Luther King or (expressed hate)'...etc.  Scorsese made this point and then went on beautifully to demonstrate how Dylan unintentionally staked out a noted position as The emerging artist of the times and then seemed to turn 90 degrees from the pressing social concerns of his fans; and how his music inspired both loyal followers and later, supreme outrage from many of the same fans as he appeared to disregard many shared values (issues) in his manner of expression and performances. Reporters often quizzed him incredulously as if they were owed a Beatles-like response to their wide ranging inquiries.  Dylan is a classic "bear market" star and this film portrays this dynamic without acknowledging social mood.

The Socially Felt Need for Control Versus Free Speech and Privacy Issues: Updated threads

This is not really a new post so much as a reiteration of a recent post.  It is a recommendation to read the post here from August and a few of the links I have been collecting that follow the related trending threads. I've only included a sampling of links at the end of that post below for now. The varied trending subjects are most interesting to me because of how they will affect our day to day lives and even our businesses over the next several years. This is big picture social trending reaching directly into our daily lives. If it only seems like sensationalized headlines right now to you, take another closer look. These issues will continue to grow in our everyday lives.

This phase of social correction from the beginning has been about transparency in many different aspects of our shared social lives. Why is that?  Because at the peak of great periods of social expansion we take many liberties with how we create, and as fundamental issues are tweaked and twisted to the needs of the things we collectively build during the expansion, we come to see later how these often concealed changes negatively affect many people in society and not only the few and narrow reasons why they were changed previously. (ie. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles & subtly encouraging illegal immigration, everyone agreeing to take on a lot of debt to buy things...these things that were previously changed with little discussion tend to be scattered throughout a society)

The root of the privacy trending we see today as well as the current Free Speech issues related to WikiLeaks and those in the digital community who support total transparency, is really about the idea of control.....social control. "The desire for and to control issues" (from a group perspective and not as individuals) related to man-made constructs seems like it is peaking right now. I doubt we are anywhere near a peak in these discussions. I doubt either of the issues related to freedom of speech or privacy will calm down one bit in the many months ahead. This social correction is moving into the middle phase where the perceived need for change comes fast and is substantial, so during the next few years we (Americans) will collectively decide (maybe seemingly over and over) what really matters about how we ought conduct ourselves as individuals and as a society...in the context of free speech and privacy related issues.

As I posted recently, I suspect that the deciding factor in short term decisions on the divide between "the greater good" and individual wants is whether there is a perceived threat. Business take note: Consumers who've lost control over certain freedoms will be keeping mental ledgers and will be less agreeable about ceding control to opaque business practices, especially in the digital environment.

Freedom has to be about transparency at some level but these days we hear a lot about the need for secrets to protect the national interests. Eventually, this discussion will have to evolve towards what rights take precedence: Are individual rights more or less important than those of the larger group? That will be a divided day for sure. Is it fair to entrap people who display interest in hurting other people because of their ideas? Does it matter if they are Americans or not? These are very big and very difficult questions we are only beginning to discuss on a national level.  Personally, I expect the answers to these questions will be seen differently by generations of Americans.  The ultimate answers will help to define America for the next period of social expansion, down the road, and will also define the ultimate price of our freedom. I do not expect big decisions like this to be worked out the way the health care legislation was.....fought about then put to a final vote. No, I expect this will be decided by multiple cases that provoke outrage by many different layers of society. It will take time, toil, and tears.

Freedom of Speech and Privacy may well feel like core concerns of all Americans but, in the light of such a large social correction, how we see these issues is certain to change over the next few years as our perceived needs (and threats) change. What is really changing is our shared outlook to the future. That is what social mood is about:  And while I enjoy blogging about these ideas here I do not teach them thoroughly, so I encourage you to read about the socionomic model of human behavior. It explains a lot about these days.

It's also a good time to read the August post if you have not....and begin to follow this thread of trending that develop from this point forward. The links are at the end of the linked post. Many more will be needed soon I suspect.  Dave

 The Approaching Public Discussions re: Free Speech & Privacy Issues  8 10 

another timely Post: To Join or not to Join? To Include or Deny Inclusion? 9 10

Good Resource

I have invested a considerable amount of time cultivating sources and routines to keep my reading hours for the Root Trend limited and efficient.  

Recently I came across this page at Pew's web site. I had no idea they offered so many current studies in such an accessible manner. It is a different kind of resource but over time it should provide good markers.  If you follow trends related to social mood, this link may be a permanent bookmark.  

Pew Research Center for The People & The Press

There are many interesting individual reports there but this next one really jumped off the page. Social trends are lagging expressions of social mood. How much of a lag seems like it may be a changing variable at different times and especially to different kinds of behavior (from my own experience). We are a long way from the nadir of the social correction so where will something like this end up I wonder?

Distrust, Discontent, Anger, and Partisan Rancor  April 18th 

The new national pastime of finger pointing, failures, cheats, and the lessons for marketers

I am republishing this December post with just a few updates and links as this trend thread is developing broadly and we can benefit by looking closer at what it says about changing the 'social condition'.  Today's Washington post has an excellent article titled  Ritual of Repentance
The Post-Scandal Litany of New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer Has Familiar Echoes