The Root Trend

What Trends Really Matter, To You?

What large trends do you think really matter now? Are you looking at them in a way that will allow for understanding or are you responding to a seemingly chaotic environment? This post will point you to a great resource that will help you see more about what really matters.

When I use the phrase What Really Matters? I am writing here and thinking of something I learned by seeing social trends through the lens of social mood. All social trends eventually correct and many correct out of existence. Rather than beginning by asking which ones will go away forever, I suggest you begin by organizing the challenge in more thorough framework. 

When distinct societies eventually correct longer periods of social expansion, the natural tendency is for groups within to begin focusing on the issues that matter most. This is a natural, necessary group process designed to organize the larger group for more expansion down the road. And since not every social trend expands and corrects in tandem, the divergences are very instructive when seen through social mood. Social corrections, as seen through mood, are one of two basic patterns that affect how and what we create when gathered into groups and markets. (see #2 below for specific examples)

One of the main reasons I began writing this blog (years ago) is because, as seen from this broad perspective,  we've entered a long stretch of socially corrective episodes.  Massive social change is part of this and is likely to last much of the decade.  Is your enterprise geared to adapt to a changed mindset and marketplace?  What are the right strategies in your market to survive the socially corrective patterns that are emerging?  

No one is going to offer you perfect answers to these questions. If they claim to, question them. In the meantime you can arm yourself with organizing knowledge. You can apply this to markets and large groups that matter most to your enterprise or your life.

Begin the year by learning something entirely new.  Teach yourself a great gift.  You will not forget to use it.  Of all the information sources I have cultivated, this one stands alone. 

Very few places offer so much high quality content for free. 

Here are a few basic links that run deep with ideas. Check out the links within the links. I am a reader and subscriber of this work. This post is not an ad.

I witnessed a few different industries I had watched for a long time begin to change forever and needed to find a better way to organize what I was seeing in the context of what had already happened and was continuing. I am certain this can do the same for you if applied the same way. (warning: this isn't about short punchy ideas and answers...this is solid insight that must be earnestly applied in each case.)

So, WRM in the markets and large groups you care about?  Think these questions after you have had a chance to read these links....and think about them for a while.

1. What is social mood?

    1a how it is applied

2. What are some different expressions produced by social mood expressed in various group settings?

      2a....An old post here that tries to reiterate the very basic point how we share our (forward looking)  mood in all social interactions but how aggregate social mood is unique to each society.  Right now, we see hopeful parallels in some mideastern countries but divergences can & will appear quickly across borders based on changing mood and the stability of the societal charter. Authoritarian regimes based on assumed power can crumble very quickly when respected systems are not firmly established. Our founding fathers really were visionary 222 years ago. After these largest chunks of ideas are organized for perspective, we can carefully move into the challenges of individual markets: I created these two very general slides years ago (to use for myself) after reading Pioneering Studies in Socionomics. 

3. How will some big picture cultural issues evolve as social mood changes?

    3a. So how might this control issue change?    Mood re-shapes most critical issues at pivotal times.

All markets see the effects of changing mood incrementally but it does not happen in lockstep. Different trends expand and contract based on the larger rhythms they follow and while social mood shapes it all, it does not control it. Look closer at the markets that matter to you and look also at the markets connected to those. For instance, technology is a quintessential forward looking business that is also, at times, myopic. That is not a criticism. 'They' are constantly reaching out on the edge creating and social corrections in societies just do not offer as supportive an environment of that mindset as do broad periods of social expansion. Incredibly disruptive new tools come about sometimes but remember this: social corrections typically witness swift adjustments and outright changes in perspective.  Technology businesses adapt to shared social values. They follow the collective "us" along one or more steps behind, not ahead of shared values. In this context, looking back to look forward can help us collectively focus on the getting right the things that matter most. Use socionomics as a way to see markets and large groups as a whole that are subject to mood. Just by doing that much you might be able to glimpse ahead of the mass adopting laggards to sense which parts will endure and what (if any) is more likely to be ephemeral. The material at the socionomics institute site may provide you with ideas for leading and lagging indicators in the markets that matter most to you. Don't just scan it. Study it over time and see more about what really matters to you.

Socionomics; the science of understanding social change is gaining momentum

This past weekend was the first ever Socionomics Summit in Atlanta.  A list of exceptional speakers drew strong attendance and gave everyone a lot of big ideas to consider.  The event was professionally staged and videotaped so I will briefly mention the speakers below and encourage anyone interested in understanding social change to get the DVD as soon as it becomes available. It was that good of an event.

The Socionomics Summit demonstrated that critical momentum is being achieved across a diverse field of applications. A great lineup of cutting edge presenters talked about how this work has taken them far away from usual approaches to see the bigger ideas that  matter, especially right now.

The attendees I sat with included a few entrepreneurs, a tech designer, a code writer, financial professionals, and a couple of people just fascinated by the new science of understanding social change.

Here is a link to an expanded list of the ten presenters and Robert Prechter too.

The day was not a "how to" or a 101 discussion of socionomic trending and that is exactly why it was so  good. If you are willing to learn this unique model on you own by reading a very readable book (or starting with the journal linked in the right column here), then you can show up for an event like this prepared to be inspired.

Dr. John Casti asked us to consider the role of complexity in extreme events and if you've read his book, Mood Matters, then you appreciate how his unique perspective on the big picture is very important right now.

It was very appropriate to follow his ideas with Euan Wilson's (researcher with The Socionomics Institute) discussion about historical events and offered perspective that is both very interesting and timely...no matter where you live. His opening "what if" question is not just profound, it is bound to get answered sometime soon.

Dr. Ken Olsen from Fort Hayes State University asked some very basic and important questions about social mood itself and why it works as it does. He also offered some fundamental ways to see behavior.  He inspired a few conversations that day. 

Kevin Depew of Minyanville informed and entertained us with Zombinomics and the broad theme in his presentation was echoed a few times later that day.  Then after lunch Dr. Eric Gilbert from the Georgia Institute of Technology talked about our emotions and how they clearly influence our choices and actions in the real world. This was a great lead to the following discussions where EWI's Peter Kendall and Mark Galasiewski talked about two very different kinds of mass trending that follow the waves of mood as seen in the senior sociometer in a society.  These correlations go beyond interesting and suggest ways to look for your own solutions to trending challenges. 

The next two presentations were sophisticated examples of how basic behavior is crucial to understanding both the bigger picture, and also useful for complex predictions.  Scott Reamer's (from Chora Capital) Unified Theory discussion was brilliant and Johan Bollen & Huina Mao (Indiana University) talk about a very specific modeling project using Twitter data that was mentioned in the news months ago.  Johan and Huina are actively using aggregate tweet data to create a working predictive model.

Matt Lampert (a researcher for The Socionomics Institute) gave a great forward view of ideas and directions for predictive research that are underway. Both Matt and Euan emphasized how this work allows individuals to take control of how big social change affects your life.

Robert Prechter returned to close out the formal discussions, take questions, and offer his thoughts on being disciplined about not muddling up socionomic thinking with ordinary causation. It was a very practical note to close the first annual summit. So many people I talked with that day rarely had occasion to engage in discussions about social mood with like minded people. The day offered brilliant ideas and examples as well as some reminders about traps to avoid.  The staff at the Socionomics Institute and EWI offered a shinning example of what is possible as we move forward using socionomics. And while the combination of presentations that day was truly impressive, it was just as possible to benefit from the engagement with a very unique audience of attendees.  I am guessing that many people who were there will want the DVD too because there was so much good insight that it was hard to take it all in even by taking good notes. That is a great reason to not miss the next Socionomic Summit gathering.    

 

 

 

 

The most important themes and core values eventually rise to the top during social corrections

post note: I tend to write with more than one audience in mind and because of that feel required to set up observations with general detail, and that is why many posts here run long. If you do not need the detail you might just move to the bold paragraphs. Dave

The events in Japan have been shocking and may well be worse than indicated by news reports lately.

Nothing can dispel horrible loss of life and the environmental concerns except for time, effort, and massive resources. If we look beyond the immediate concerns (and that is no small task) there is a beneficial way to frame these events by looking at the very big picture. Social mood offers a long term lens through which to see unfolding events in Japan and it shapes the long term views in a different light. 

Social mood is a template for seeing typical social trending patterns in periods of positive and negative social mood. By its nature it is big picture thinking.  Wave principle, a technique one level deeper, offers us a way for seeing the broader characteristics of social developments by chunking up periods of time to better see secular (very long term) trends. (observations made using wave principle over many decades eventually gave us socionomic theory-click link on right colum of blog for their site)

The conundrum of what really propels big social trends is why I spent time focusing on seeing what wave principle calls "degree of trend". This phrase, "degree of trend" refers to how waves of generalized mood are counted as they unfold and show us how and where social mood is in its larger trending process (at the present moment). Like Lego's building ever larger scaled patterns using similar shape & pieces, social mood unfolds at multiple degrees of trend and the implication of each of these "degrees" can be observed in various manifestations in a society. In a nutshell: Understanding degree of trend offers us great perspective on what short, medium, long, and very long term actually means when talking about social trending issues. There are no calendars in trending studies, only check marks denoting general events. Likewise, peaks and troughs in social mood at the same degree of trend shows us the kinds of issues (scale) that manifest at different levels of significance (degrees of trend).

How might we view long term events in Japan is to make assumptions and correlations that go beyond the moment?  I saw an article (link at post bottom); it discusses how even before the earthquake, Japanese officials were deeply concerned how social concentrations of various resources in Tokyo made the society extremely vulnerable. The government effort will be enacted to decentralize Japan's vast resources and to also do this in a way that may help rejuvenate lagging rural parts of the country. Apparently, bullet trains are great for commuters but contribute to overloading resources into one location and adding to perceived vulnerability. Keep in mind how changes to how we (collectively) view the always uncertain future, are often very subtle.

Japan, when viewed from a very long term perspective is most likely in the third leg of long term social correction of the previous expansion that peaked in the late 1980's. From this longer perspective, present events are painfully taxing their ongoing efforts and this is certainly not meant to make light of these challenges. Their larger (degree) social correction as a society of a previous long period of social expansion will continue and end sometime in the years ahead. This is a kind of patterned behavior in the history of nations and there are different ways to see these events. Socionomics offers the most flexible and far sighted lens to view these recurring patterns.

Nations can be seen to go through months and years of these social corrections. They present as a kind of national struggle to fix perceived wrongs and accrued imbalances but they have purpose and there is even more purpose in seeing them this way.  Over the time and events accompanying social corrections, nations will focus on the core values that matter most to them and eventually reorganize themselves socially, increasing the order that will later support broad social expansion; when this finally begins in Japan it may well be the beginning of what could prove to be a remarkable series of successes for our cultural world neighbor and friend. why?

Social corrections tend to revisit old problems that were previously left unresolved during other larger periods of social correction. These tend to be the really difficult problems that linger and worsen when unchecked in a society. For instance, in the US we have seen racism come up over and over and that is partly due to our diverse nature and the fact that we are a collection of many smaller regional cultures under one roof. Just look at the smoldering mess in the middle east.  In Japan, one very big issue there is energy. Thirst for energy helped to precipitate WWII when the US infringed upon their easy retrieval of oil from various south Pacific countries. Japan is a nation hungry for energy resources and current events there now are exposing this raw nerve. Who knows? This could turn out to be their strength one day if they plan now to succeed later. As problematic as energy will be in the years just ahead for Japan, I suspect that Americans might testify to how specific societal weaknesses can be turned into expressions of strength when a nation is forced to examine it core shared values over time in a productive manner. Of course, racist attitudes can be slowly changed and energy sources must be discovered but history shows how both kinds of endeavors are often a function of society's discipline and creative capacity.  

In the meantime, Japan must make difficult choices about how to allocate all kinds of social resources so that the country is prepared to experience sustained social expansion in the face of any natural eventuality. (And of course, this is not meant to ignore the critical present tragedy) Population decline is an ongoing issue (and is a symptom of the kinds of social imbalances expected during a very large degree social correction). The US will eventually deal with shades of this same issue as we too will struggle with how to allocate resources in a society that needs to rejuvenate itself and its productive capacity without incurring massive debt.

Social corrections are a societal (group) process that enforces a corrective dynamic to look at critical ways to reorganize social capital that enables later expansion. Of course, societies do come and go but this natural cycle can be seen repeating in ever larger patterns over time and can be seen reliably to cycle back around to old unresolved issues that affect the creative capacity of a nation of people. Earthquakes are also a natural legacy of the Japanese culture. So too is their great need for energy in our modern world. Energy modernization and social resource decentralization are the kind critical themes you would expect see at his degree of trend of Japan's developing social mood. And much as Japan may be seeing dark days right now, they also might soon be working meaningfully towards the resolution of these most critical issues.

What really matters most?  This is the underlying question that naturally brings the big issues to the public focus during social corrections of all sizes. Depending upon the size (degree) of the social correction, the issues brought up will differ or, in the case of natural disasters it can be forced.  And while this generalized observation is worth a more detailed analysis, it is enough for now to point to how this broad set of observations can be used in different ways and even within key industrial verticals in a society. The only requirement to make this happen is to mix a socionomic mindset with deep subject knowledge.

Seeing current events and social change through the lens of the big picture can be very helpful during especially trying times. 

Kan Told To Decentralize Japan on Anihilation Danger to Tokyo Bloomberg 3 11

Visualizing Fives as sets of Two's

a short post for those interested in wave principle

Seeing Change Through the Generations Versus Social Mood

WRM Large behavioral threads to watch for yourself

This post is a list of Root Trend links I consider What Really Matters from the past year.  Each represents an area of group behavior change that will impact specific markets businesses serve. Each is an important trending set of behaviors.  I watch them for directional changes and incremental markers of distance traveled toward new expressive extremes: Also, At the end of the link list I have made a specific request for ideas regarding web site platforms. I'd really appreciate some feedback if you have experience in this area. Thank you. Dave

To Join or Not to Join, To Include or Deny Inclusion?

Beyond our family, what shared values affect our decisions regarding the groups we join, or belong to already? How might understanding the directionality of this trending dynamic change how you see your business?

This post is a somewhat raw example of my perspective on social mood and how to build sets of social trending expectations that can be applied to different markets of people engaged in all manner of commerce. My driving point always is how this perspective is critical for strategic positioning relative to the market(s) being served by business.

I use this basic list of the trend dynamics associated with social corrections previously posted for your consideration.  One of the most basic elements on that list is what Robert Prechter calls "units of social association" in his books. It is intuitive once you grasp the larger idea of social mood.

During positive social mood people tend to expand their associations more broadly and diversity is embraced as optimism takes over our collective emotional sense of the always uncertain future.

During negative social mood, and longer periods (I think of the longer episodes as social corrections), people tend to have fewer units of social association, build barriers, exemplify differences, and this dynamic somehow serves the overall purpose of a social correction (which is to generally ready a society for another period of social expansion).

Like all discussion here, this is not about individuals. These ideas are about crowd behavior and the moving averages that are observable in markets of people because of our social nature. 

As basic as Prechter's observation seems about "units of association", it occurred to me that this idea may break down into three dynamics. (see footnote below) So for a while I have been considering the following in the spirit of a bigger picture discussion about social trend dynamics, owing to the polarized nature of all social trending (when viewed from the standpoint of the social impulses driving the trending process). Even if I am wrong and "units of social association" is a base impulse and does not break down as I suggest next, each of these three underlying (social) trending dynamics are important secondary considerations and can be observed (especially at key inflection points in social mood, like now).

 

Based on the headlines of the last week leading up to today (re 9-11 and American's sentiment toward Islam), this discussion certainly feels appropriate. And if these examples seem to have little bearing on for-profit enterprise positioning decisions, the key is to remember how social trends in shared values lead, and businesses chase, all these changes big and small. Changes in outright trend direction may seem like the holy grail of social trend following but, anticipating longer extensions matters just as much. 

 

One last thought to add to this perspective: Participation in trending processes matters from the perspective of the individual society being observed. The digital universe may often feel like its own separate country but the dividing lines between societies still exist. More and more people are connected 24/7 to the world wide web but our individual national unit of association will always exert a profound influence upon our shared values. So for instance: social media tools will continue their worldwide growth trend at impressive adoption rates but here in the US, specific aspects of participation may change (or be changing) quietly and be opposing the larger trend in some ways.  This is exactly why a more nuanced view of this topic can be helpful in seeing what really matters. 
 

As always, I am interested in your feedback. Dave 

Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, R. Prechter (pgs 232-233)

Intro to the socionomic basis for change to the media business model

Familiarity with a business or industry is a product of time and effort. The same is true for socionomics and how the insights social mood offers us can lead to highly effective decision making by businesses that use it during critical times of social change. At certain junctures social changes can be anticipated to have directional effects on the markets we intend to serve through an enterprise.  The media business is a perfect example of an industry at a long term cross road because of social change and social mood has a lot it can tell us about this primary social tool (media), and the changing profit picture that will result over the next five to ten years.

Four years ago this past June, Viacom sued Google's You Tube over infringement of copyrighted material and a new offshoot of the larger trend in media began to express itself in earnest. At issue (though not often discussed this way) was control and the obligations of manufacturers and distributors of content in the digital environment. (Previously, manufacturers did their own distribution.) This discussion, when framed properly, can also be seen as being related on different levels to the key issues in the music business and also in the newspaper/magazine/publishing businesses this past decade. The business of selling content has already been forcibly split up but few existing enterprises recognize the present reality, choosing instead to think like an industry that still enjoys some kind of mandate to persevere without the competitive barriers to entry that aided them for decades. This tendency is an echo of the old exhausted secular social trend (and the older generation still at the helm of many businesses) and has been replaced by a new complex set of perceptions towards content by consumers. 

Humans using technology created a new dimension of space used to share ideas ( a very natural human social behavior) in 1989 called the world wide web and it took a few years to gain traction but, when it did the existing businesses that had previously enjoyed sizable barriers to competition were caught completely off guard by the social changes in attitudes and behavior that resulted from new technology. Within a few years of Yahoo's and Google's services being widely available and demanded, the existing business model used by content companies began to experience the first effects of secular profit change (correction) due to new competition for the consumer's time using traditional channels of distribution...as a result of evolved consumer expectations.  Unfortunately, most companies in the media industry outwardly acknowledged them as recessionary forces that would mostly pass in time as they figured out how to "monetize the internet".

The unofficial protected competitive status of US media companies was now completely vulnerable despite decades of flowing profits because no resources were set aside to protect market positions or anticipate change in the core of their business model. Instead the profits were aggressively siphoned off and distributed to lenders and owners in offerings during what wave principle (the trend following analytic technique that inferred the existence of social mood being a natural group expression) calls an "extended fifth wave".  In wave principle, a fifth wave is the final advance of a particular social trend before exhaustion of the impulse driving it and when an extended fifth wave is observed, what happens next is most often a quick/dramatic correction of the uncommon gains accrued in the recently expressed social trend. The point is that, analytically, the present position and course of the entire media sphere can be understood using various techniques and, from each of the related perspectives (using social mood), we can see a little more qualitatively about what needs to happen next based upon social trending dynamics that are shaping the business of media (monetizing content).

From a socionomic standpoint it might be easy to look at a basket of media stocks and how their value changed through the late 1990's consolidation era up to the dot com peak in 2000 and then sharply correcting to 2002. Many went downward even after that because despite the boom elsewhere in the US economy, the frenzy for media company shares ended with the dot com bust and the realization that a lot had changed. In fact, a multi-generational media trend had ended.  Execs in the business knew it but communicated little or none of their true concerns because of the effect of such uncertainty might have on the share prices already in free fall. My position on the best perspective socionomics can take when evaluating media as a business is to look at the consumer of content first and foremost because it is from that perspective that we can see more about what will constitute value in the post broadcast era. The consumer's version of "what is value?" is often a moving target subject to social mood. 

This blog post is intended only as a fly-by discussion of a very large topic I have looked at for four years now: The socionomic basis for specific change to the media business model. In order to mine down into this discussion a combination of social mood modeling and an appreciation for how the media business works in the US is essential. With both of these prerequisites you can begin to see why substantial change is needed and why it is not far away.

In order to give shape (or at least outlines) to the broad picture of change needed, let's look again at the typical social trending dynamics surrounding a period of social correction and then compare them to a few of the changes we've witnessed in the past decade.

A few suggestions for using the content here:

• The Toyota Brand Quality thread is still being added to...this is a long term topic & link thread I am following. I do not change original dates of posts and just add links incrementally....so Toyota's thread began on 3-13-10 and you must page down a ways to find it. The point of this thread is not to prove mechanical damage exists. The point is to demonstrate how developing long term damage to the corporation is a result of damage to the brand combined with (large) social correction dynamics. How to cope with crisis now is different than several years ago. 
  

• The two most recent posts at my media blog cut to the heart of change needed in the business of media and much of it is derived using the lens of social mood combined with plenty of experience in the business. The next post here will address the socionomic basis for some of these changes as an example of how generalized social trending dynamics can be applied in very specific circumstances. Social media tools are another excellent insight to this trending process and are being followed in posts below.

• There is a new link (in the right column) to The Socionomist. It's the official monthly magazine published by the Socionomics Institute and it is all about social mood's impact upon social trending. I encourage you to subscribe digitally and reap the benefits of the timely insight in the days & months directly ahead. It is my understanding that those who subscribe now can see a selection of past topics covered. Social trending is a big subject area but, it is very structured while allowing ample room for individual and group style. Can you make this insight valuable seeing change in the market your business serves?  It is certainly worth a quality monthly journal subscription to find out.

The Socionomic Roadmap Grows

Crowd behavior is shaped by the mass expression of our social nature. Social mood is a natural product expressed by crowds of people. Social mood is about seeing a society as a single breathing, changing  social unit. It is also about understanding change in groups of people and markets. The big picture (social) trends discussed here are driven by social mood.

Socionomics is the name of the social science behind the idea of social mood. Robert R Prechter Jr. shared these ideas after dramatically expanding on Ralph Elliott's views from decades earlier. At the root of the idea is a very simple concept. In order to appreciate it requires a reader to re-frame their ideas about cause and effect in the larger world.  It is hard to appreciate just how programmed our views of cause and effect are and, how a particular way of seeing events is reinforced every single day in the outside world (especially by those in the media). Making this leap to far sightedness is complicated further by the fact that our nature most often pins our focus on the often chaotic short term.  

So socionomics was visualized when considering behavior in financial markets (compared to another kind of decision making) but, from there, the underlying idea of social mood touches many things we do when attached to groups that create.  In a few short years the idea of social mood has been adopted by diverse groups of observers and analysts.

While I work on a blog roll  that offers the different ways socionomic thought is being applied, here are a some good links for the curious to consider.  It makes sense that most of these thoughts encompass financial ideas. After all, money-like stuff is our most prolific creation. Socionomics has potential application in many markets beyond finance and that is my main purpose here. As markets change, people change. Markets change because groups of people change their outlook just like flocks, schools and herds change their directionality. In societies this emotional behavior is patterned on some level. It is not random.  Our social nature is a worthy subject for any business charged with understanding a market during changing times. Combined with deep market knowledge, socionomic ideas allow us to see farther and deeper into markets...where different kinds of emotional needs and uncertainty meet. 

Socionomic thinking offers a road map to the understanding of social change and now the field is starting to grow. In an analytical age (like this one) we are likely to see many more ways to use this great insight. Here are a few diverse examples on the roadmap:

Minyanville Todd Harrison is a seasoned trader with a unique understanding and presentation. His social commentary, laced in with market talk reflects the multiple time frames that all traders must consider. Even if you'll never place a trade, his view is very timely and there is a world of learning resources at the Minyanville site. 

FutureJacked Macro social commentary with en eye toward big picture money issues. Interesting take on a broad range of issues. 

Professor Elam  A Professor of Business in Texas offers his students insight lace with socionomic thought. The latest post 6/12/10 is a good example.

 The Wall Street Traffic Light  he's an accountant (a PHD actually) who likes historic patterns and teaching others.(hmmm...)

and of course,

The Socionomist a monthly publication started by Robert Prechter 

to help people see changes most never see coming

The (industrial) (r)Evolution of Media   I also have a second blog and it is work in progress that combines socionomics and years in broadcasting. It started out being a book and is really a business plan that began simply by looking at the big picture first. I see the broad lines the media business model is likely to split up along now that the market for content has been opened up to competition. The one place people agree is seeing dramatic deflation right now is the same place I see tremendous opportunity for growth and in the decades ahead but just like socionomics, it's going to take a different world view to get there....and getting there will require a few speed bumps but it's all about the journey, right?  Social mood will impact each of the incremental steps during this (r)Evolution. 

The Root Trend is almost four years old. So what?

I originally began organizing thoughts on this blog from different journals I had been keeping for two years up to that point. One is a written journal and the other two are collections of different social trend threads observed in real time through reputable media sources and based upon expected patterns of behavior based on the developing social mood and the behavioral lens socionomics offers.  And while most of these specific trends are rarely subjects of posts, this daily effort is what drives the intermittent posting here at The Root Trend and my discovery of socionomics everyday. How many different social trends can one person follow on their own? I found my own personal limit to be variable but in the process I have been able to see the bigger issues related to social trending dynamics.  So, The Root Trend has been my ongoing experiment.  I placed a lot of faith in it to produce a specific result over time.  It produced more than I expected.

If you've ever been passionate about a sport, a business endeavor, or a specific idea you may have experienced this more than once: You cannot be introduced to any endeavor (fun or serious) that attracts full timers & professionals and expect to immediately appreciate the nuances needed for performance in that area. It always takes repeated exposure to real-time events. It takes a willing mental engagement that only you can decide to give. It takes experience and that takes time.  This is what Malcolm Gladwell discusses in his latest book but it is more than just 10,000 hours especially when the endeavor you are chasing is not populated by crowds of professionals. I think Tony Robbins said it best: 'Success is the product of good judgment. Good judgment is the result of experience. Experience is often the result of bad judgment.'

In the end there is no substitute for experience and no better time to expand insight and skills than when sitting atop specific, recent experience. In various endeavors it's called "being current".  This leads directly to my most basic conclusion:

• Forecasting social trends is possible provided the questions are posed carefully  
  

Prior to my adopting the socionomic model for seeing social trending, the forecasting of trends (by others) seemed to be the product of immersion in specific markets. It is often presented as a kind of personal magic some people perform. Clearly, there is no replacement for deep subject knowledge, ever. The main lesson offered to me through this effort is that understanding how social mood acts as a primary ingredient to all social interaction when operating in our many different social groupings can be used to see more nuanced probabilities for outcomes that can be tracked incrementally. It's about the study of groups as evolving units, not individuals. It's about looking at markets holistically. Ultimately trends can be forecast using events (and not calendars) as a guideline by understanding how shared values are changing.  It's about going deeper into the social dynamic but from a macro perspective.

If I had accomplished nothing else this much would have been more than enough. There was more.

Let's look at a few of the incremental flexible observations I've walked away with from these first four years and why they encourage more of me (and why this work encourages your participation using your enterprise/industry's challenges as a backdrop).

• (industrial) (r)Evolution of media (specific insight into where we are taking the business model)
  

• brands in crisis during a social correction (why brands are a potential liability now)
  
• witnessing the polarity of socially shared values shift (how to see the end and beginning of large trends)
  

• recognizing different sized cycles related to specific cases (outside of time) <yet to be posted)
  

The first bullet point above began as an observation based on my own deep market experience and 18 months later became a dedicated blog of its own so that is the best one, right? No, but it may be the best example why this perspective is a skill set worth cultivating. I am very passionate about the topic of media and the evolution of its business model and this endeavor will consume time in the years ahead. The socionomic model helps us break down trends into impulses and from there we can see why certain paths are more likely than others and how specifically businesses can adjust proactively to changing shared values.

The second bullet point above is a worthy business principle right now. It is spawning several excellent real time examples (BP, Toyota, UBS, the financial brand universe, and more) and now seems to be beyond denial in just two+ years of watching. So this is the best one? No, but the full implications to this observation is not appreciated yet. The sound bites I see and hear sterilize the value of the observation back toward traditional crisis marketing. Brands are more vulnerable during large periods of social correction and can easily become gargantuan liabilities to the enterprise but their use is too ingrained to eliminate so adaptation in specific market circumstances is the only path forward. This topic now makes for great real-time trend watching (see link above for real-time trend thread).

The third bullet point above is discussed in a post last fall and is where much of my RT thought goes these days. I believe the polarity of specific shared values parallels specific "degrees of trend" of social mood and as such the field of social trending has a huge open opportunity in this area.  This angle may require an appreciation for an analytical skill called wave principle but absent that, this points to the anchor of any successful social science......sound bites.  

The last bullet point refers to something seemingly vague...different sized cycles outside of time. This is the meat of the social trending discipline for me right now. It is where incremental observations over time will produce a picture of trending dynamics that will eventually enable a detailed how-to text for practitioners. This is where industry specific observation will pay off in handsome dividends over time and why established professionals in various industries are the key to advancing this work. The value in doing the work is needed insight to markets in times of change. The prerequisite industry knowledge slims down the potential market of participants considerably so this work, in my own view, should be discussed as both very worthwhile and accessible. 

In an age of interactive marketing, having a tool that allows us to see changing markets from new perspectives could not be a better investment of effort and time.  All of the above is my own interpretation of the work of Robert R Prechter Jr. and his books which are based on the observations of Ralph Elliott. Robert Prechter took those early observations and expanded them to suggest socionomics...and when you read his book(s) you will see I lean liberally on his ideas.  The work of Neil Howe and William Strauss on generational dynamics was very important too in getting me to find Prechter's work. These two bodies of work are not similar at all but they look at a similar human social dynamic from very different perspectives. Prechter's work is that of a practitioner and an analyst. There is depth there yet to be discovered. 

The statement, How We Collectively Value Things Changes as Social Mood Changes might seem overly simplistic but given this perspective and the time to see farther into the nuances of various markets, there is a world of actionable trending insight waiting to be found and shared. Eventually, this subject will be a best practice included in a professional arsenal of tools calibrated towards seeing better the changing markets that enterprises serve.

The Root Trend has been and will continue to be a generator of insight (for me) into social trending that matters to all businesses. It is a public notepad where many ideas I've been thinking about are considered, observed, and confirmed or discarded and it has worked well for me in this narrow respect. I realize that no one ever sees the many dozens of posts that never get published. I am also aware how my approach to the subject of socionomics is different...or not orthodox by other standards.  By sticking to the issues that are more generalized and macro in nature as they relate to social trend dynamics, I believe it is possible to expand the scope of trending studies on a path that is more inclusive of established professionals in various markets.

I don't use live bait when I fish because it makes catching big fish too easy. This isn't fishing.

I encourage any interested readers to subscribe the the Socionomicst if the the subject of social trending is interesting to you. If you are like me, the fact that this period of history will be filled with substantial change makes this subject that much more interesting. If that describes you too then it's worth it, especially right now.  I hope you will check back here during the next four years. Dave

Generational Trending as it relates to Social Mood

The Root Trend will be four years old this summer.  My second blog, (a spin off developed here) is what I call iroM or the (industrial) (r)Evolution of Media discussion. It is about how & why the business model of media is changing and where we, as a society, are taking it based on trending issues we can observe now in markets for content. These observations are possible because of the two distinct ways of seeing trending that are behind both of these blogs.

The latest post at iroM discusses five key developments in the media business and the social trends behind each that are driving changes in the business. #3 on that list is:  

The post-Boomer generational divide will be the catalyst for dramatic (American) social change, and will be especially evident in the media business (well beyond demographics).

Right here is a very important aspect of my outlook on trending issues related to businesses. To the readership of this blog, it would appear that social mood is THE chief analytical distinction being discussed. Social mood is the highest order social trend and understanding it oftentimes helps to simplify complex social trending observations. However, the dynamics of generational turnover are both subject to social mood and separate from these forces. Here's the main thing from my perspective: I found the concept of social mood (and the work of Robert Prechter and Ralph Elliott) by looking for ways to confirm the generational turnover dynamics as written by Neil Howe and his earlier co-author William Strauss of Fourth Turning fame. Social mood and generational turnover dynamics are critical compliments to each other though I've never seen them discussed side by side.

So the two need to be considered separate and together for the broadest and most valuable perspective. Why?

Each generation can be seen to have its own values and world view that has developed over big chunks of time. The experiences that forge a generational outlook are not reversed or revised easily (based on incremental experience) and are the source of a friction (between sequential generations). These differences produce change in a society when combined with the developing (always changing) social mood. 

You can apply trending ideas as they relate to social mood only but, when looking at long term market changes, the dynamic of generational change will always be a distinct factor when considering the new vectors social trends may follow.

So while the subjects covered here at the Root Trend are often focused only upon the developing social mood, the generational turnover issues are how a person may come to see just how important social mood is when considering current developing trends related to specific business challenges.  The rifts between Boomers and successive generations will ad a complicated texture to the challenges of the social correction we began as a nation a decade ago and will continue for another decade (or more). <a social correction is a societal process where we reaffirm our collective view of what matters most in our societal association> There are many valuable implications through this available to all businesses. It may be worth some further reading (suggestions below). 

This post should be added to the ideas expressed in my last post about time horizons because seeing generational issues compared to trending issues related to only social mood is very much like observing one period from two different time horizons. It is not complicated. It is merely applying two similar skill sets to one challenge in order to provide more nuanced perspective. 

The two together make up what I call the root trend.  

The Fourth Turning

The Winter of History  DVD

The Socionomist (a monthly publication discussing social trending from a unique perspective)

More on the link between social mood and consumer behavior: the most basic social expressions

These pages are about how social mood, the primary social trend, influences all others we see at work in the markets we serve as enterprises and marketers. In order to see this chain of causality correctly, how you focus upon social mood and work from that broad basis, matters a great deal. Often, when in conversation discussing the idea of social mood, I find those I am talking with applying it as if it is a personal experience. This is natural but not helpful because personal experiences tend to magnify the issue being observed and it becomes very easy to lose a proper perspective. 

Social mood is a reflection of the fact that we are all part of a herd or flock of people with specific social tendencies. We are social animals and that broad fact has predictive qualities. Social mood is polarized....positive or negative, expansive or corrective. From these two basic primary states we can see it affect (very broadly) the three basic social expressions of trust, social unity, and growth (in the chart below).

My favorite of these three social expressions to look at (right now) is trust. Why? Right now we can see so many examples of how the changing polarity of trust is being expressed by groups of people very large and small, and not just in obvious places related to financial issues.  From the perspective of social mood it is both predictable and obvious.  We can see the most macro circumstances affected by changes in our shared perception toward each of these basic social expressions, and we also can see it manifest in our smaller (informal) group settings. This is what I mean when I suggest that social trends are a group process. If we avoid personalizing experiences attached to trends we observe then it is easier to get a feel for the relative size (importance)of the social trend we are watching. I began thinking it helpful to see these three basic expressions as "least common denominators" a few years ago. They tend to manifest as social impulses and that means they are primary parts of overall shared behavior...of the creative expression of groups.  This is important because it helps the observer begin to appreciate if overlapping expressions might be combining to create change in a specific social endeavor (a trend). This analytical endeavor is no different than a mechanic pulling something apart to see how it works. Businesses do this everyday in the realm of marketing. Yes, this remains in the realm of 'soft science' but the analytical documentation that is possible runs deep inside of each industry built to serve people and this creates opportunity to see what really matters to our market on a new level of depth. That is why I call this the root trend. One potato properly cut into quarters can produce four plants each with the potential to produce as many as 8 to 13 new potatoes.  The same can be said of social mood as it directly influences three of the most basic social expressions (by groups or markets) below.  

Are there more than these three least common denominators that can be seen to react directly to social mood?  Yes. Each basic social expression is expressed over time having a polarized dynamic. What is most helpful to me in looking at these three is how they can be objectively measured if you think about how to properly capture the basic expressive nature. Each of these expressions, however, is also processed personally alongside emotional content that we produce naturally as a part of who we are when operating inside as part of a social group. Expressions of trust, social unity, and our perspective toward growth are seen/experienced emotionally by us on some level as soon as we participate in a formal or informal social group that encounters issues related to any of these three basic social expressions.  They are foundational expressions of groups of people (markets) in social settings. 

How does this affect the market your enterprise serves? How might this affect the position of your brand over time? It's worth approaching your market from this broad perspective as you build ideas to test over time.

Posted addendum 9 29 09: Bloomberg announced plans by the Federal Reserve today to no longer allow credit cards to be issued to people under 21 without a parental co-signer. We can draft them to fight legally but credit worthiness, now, does not seem realistic until after 21 years of age. Appreciating this from the outside is easy. Applying it to solutions meant to serve changing markets is another matter. Both detachment and engagement are needed to put these kind of observations to work. History is always valuable in this regard.